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<p>Agricultural expansion made possible by warming climate conditions in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions is being promoted as a means to mitigate food insecurity while enhancing economic development. We first evaluate the potential for agricultural development in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, under future climate change scenarios in the near (2036–2065) and far (2071–2100) future. Linear programming was adopted to obtain optimal cropping patterns by maximizing agricultural net profit, accounting for the biophysical and economic uncertainties. Results show that growing degree days above 5&#xa0;°C (GDD5) under future climate conditions favor a wide range of crops, including those late-maturing varieties. Drought frequency slightly reduces in the near future but intensifies, reaching ~30%, in the far future under mid- and high-emission scenarios. Crop varieties with different maturity periods may each offer advantages under future climate conditions, balancing yield potential and water stress exposure. Four major crops—canola, oats, flaxseed, and lentils—occupy over 99% of the allocated area, with canola and oats jointly accounting for more than 39% across all sub-regions and climate scenarios. Despite significant uncertainties, optimized cropping patterns yield robust median outcomes: net profit of ~$0.6 billion, ~2 million tonnes of food production, and ~60 million liters of fuel demand. Around 0.53% (5162&#xa0;ha) of the potential agricultural land overlaps with the federally recognized Indigenous territories or Aboriginal lands. These findings are relevant to other high-latitude or cold regions where agricultural expansion is being considered.</p>

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Assessing the agricultural production potential of northern high-latitude arable land under climate change: The case of the Northwest Territories, Canada

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月29日

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  • Lina Wu,
  • Qi Zhao,
  • David Natcher

摘要

Agricultural expansion made possible by warming climate conditions in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions is being promoted as a means to mitigate food insecurity while enhancing economic development. We first evaluate the potential for agricultural development in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, under future climate change scenarios in the near (2036–2065) and far (2071–2100) future. Linear programming was adopted to obtain optimal cropping patterns by maximizing agricultural net profit, accounting for the biophysical and economic uncertainties. Results show that growing degree days above 5 °C (GDD5) under future climate conditions favor a wide range of crops, including those late-maturing varieties. Drought frequency slightly reduces in the near future but intensifies, reaching ~30%, in the far future under mid- and high-emission scenarios. Crop varieties with different maturity periods may each offer advantages under future climate conditions, balancing yield potential and water stress exposure. Four major crops—canola, oats, flaxseed, and lentils—occupy over 99% of the allocated area, with canola and oats jointly accounting for more than 39% across all sub-regions and climate scenarios. Despite significant uncertainties, optimized cropping patterns yield robust median outcomes: net profit of ~$0.6 billion, ~2 million tonnes of food production, and ~60 million liters of fuel demand. Around 0.53% (5162 ha) of the potential agricultural land overlaps with the federally recognized Indigenous territories or Aboriginal lands. These findings are relevant to other high-latitude or cold regions where agricultural expansion is being considered.