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<p>Southeast Asia is undergoing rapid land use transitions, largely driven by smallholders responding to fluctuations in crop prices and market opportunities. In Southern Thailand, oil palm cultivation has gained increasing importance—historically the main rubber-producing region. This study analyzed land use changes in the Krabi, Trang, and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces (2 million hectares in total) between 2012 and 2022 and utilized the Land Change Modeler framework to predict future trends for 2022–2032. The novelty of this study lies in the use of a spatially explicit modeling framework to quantify and forecast smallholder-driven conversions from rubber to oil palm, an underexplored dynamic in Thailand compared to the large-scale plantation systems of neighboring countries. Based on the results, there was a net expansion of oil palm by approximately 137,000 hectares, largely replacing 53,000 hectares of rubber, while paddy fields declined by 80,000 hectares, decreasing from 5% to less than 1% of the total area. Despite this shift, rubber remained the dominant crop, occupying 36.7% of the landscape in 2022. Model validation against the observed 2022 data demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with the projections for 2032 indicating continued but slower oil palm expansion. These findings revealed the continued presence of diversified agricultural landscapes despite strong economic drivers promoting oil palm cultivation. They stress the importance of evidence-based land-use policies that safeguard crop diversity and local food production as a risk mitigation strategy suited to an uncertain climatic and socio-economic future.</p>

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Oil palm spreads, but rubber still there—mapping the continuous but slow changes of plantations area in Southern Thailand

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月23日

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  • Netnapa Kaswiset,
  • Phantip Panklang,
  • Philippe Thaler,
  • Guerric le Maire,
  • Alexis Thoumazeau

摘要

Southeast Asia is undergoing rapid land use transitions, largely driven by smallholders responding to fluctuations in crop prices and market opportunities. In Southern Thailand, oil palm cultivation has gained increasing importance—historically the main rubber-producing region. This study analyzed land use changes in the Krabi, Trang, and Nakhon Si Thammarat provinces (2 million hectares in total) between 2012 and 2022 and utilized the Land Change Modeler framework to predict future trends for 2022–2032. The novelty of this study lies in the use of a spatially explicit modeling framework to quantify and forecast smallholder-driven conversions from rubber to oil palm, an underexplored dynamic in Thailand compared to the large-scale plantation systems of neighboring countries. Based on the results, there was a net expansion of oil palm by approximately 137,000 hectares, largely replacing 53,000 hectares of rubber, while paddy fields declined by 80,000 hectares, decreasing from 5% to less than 1% of the total area. Despite this shift, rubber remained the dominant crop, occupying 36.7% of the landscape in 2022. Model validation against the observed 2022 data demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with the projections for 2032 indicating continued but slower oil palm expansion. These findings revealed the continued presence of diversified agricultural landscapes despite strong economic drivers promoting oil palm cultivation. They stress the importance of evidence-based land-use policies that safeguard crop diversity and local food production as a risk mitigation strategy suited to an uncertain climatic and socio-economic future.