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<p>This study investigates the region-specific impacts of climate change on rice yield in Mandla, India, and Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka, two distinct semi-arid regions heavily reliant on rainfed rice agriculture. The study aims to (i) estimate future crop evapotranspiration (ET<sub>c</sub>) and rice yield projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5, and SSP 8.5) and (ii) assess the effectiveness of adjusting planting dates, along with the integration of drought-resilient cultivars, alternate wetting and drying irrigation, and soil management practices, as adaptation strategies to mitigate yield reductions. To achieve these objectives, the CropWat and AquaCrop models were employed, using statistically downscaled CMIP6 CanESM5 GCM data. The AquaCrop model was calibrated using data from 1994 to 2004 and validated for the period 2005–2014, demonstrating strong performance metrics (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.83 and 0.80, RMSE = 351.8 and 117.15, <i>r</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.91 and 0.94 for Mandla and Anuradhapura, respectively). Our findings indicate that climate-induced challenges pose a significant threat to rice yield stability in both regions. In response, adjusting planting dates emerged as a promising adaptation strategy. Specifically, delaying planting by 5&#xa0;days until 2070 and by 10&#xa0;days from 2071 to 2099 significantly mitigates yield declines. An optimum 10-day delay in planting was found to recover up to 15% of yield losses under SSP 2.6 and 4.5. Furthermore, compound strategies—including drought-tolerant varieties, AWD irrigation, and improved soil management—provided up to 25% additional yield gains. These results highlight the importance of temporally optimized sowing and integrated agronomic interventions for climate-resilient rice production, offering actionable insights for food security and adaptation planning in semi-arid South Asia.</p>

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Optimizing the rice yield under future climate: joint insights for India and Sri Lanka

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Ankit Balvanshi,
  • Rashmi Patil,
  • Harikumar Mohanan,
  • Hari Lal Tiwari,
  • K. V. Jayakumar,
  • Venkappayya R. Desai

摘要

This study investigates the region-specific impacts of climate change on rice yield in Mandla, India, and Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka, two distinct semi-arid regions heavily reliant on rainfed rice agriculture. The study aims to (i) estimate future crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and rice yield projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5, and SSP 8.5) and (ii) assess the effectiveness of adjusting planting dates, along with the integration of drought-resilient cultivars, alternate wetting and drying irrigation, and soil management practices, as adaptation strategies to mitigate yield reductions. To achieve these objectives, the CropWat and AquaCrop models were employed, using statistically downscaled CMIP6 CanESM5 GCM data. The AquaCrop model was calibrated using data from 1994 to 2004 and validated for the period 2005–2014, demonstrating strong performance metrics (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.83 and 0.80, RMSE = 351.8 and 117.15, r2 = 0.91 and 0.94 for Mandla and Anuradhapura, respectively). Our findings indicate that climate-induced challenges pose a significant threat to rice yield stability in both regions. In response, adjusting planting dates emerged as a promising adaptation strategy. Specifically, delaying planting by 5 days until 2070 and by 10 days from 2071 to 2099 significantly mitigates yield declines. An optimum 10-day delay in planting was found to recover up to 15% of yield losses under SSP 2.6 and 4.5. Furthermore, compound strategies—including drought-tolerant varieties, AWD irrigation, and improved soil management—provided up to 25% additional yield gains. These results highlight the importance of temporally optimized sowing and integrated agronomic interventions for climate-resilient rice production, offering actionable insights for food security and adaptation planning in semi-arid South Asia.