More evident trend of main drought seasons transition from spring-winter to summer-autumn in future China with higher emission scenarios

Global warming will lead to strong drought challenges in China. Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of and changes in meteorological drought in China in the future is therefore of great significance for minimizing drought risks and for mitigating agricultural losses. It is crucial to consider the drought seasonality and aggregation while exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of and changes in meteorological drought in China. This study applied the ST-Moran scatterplot method to identify the drought spatiotemporal aggregation areas (DSTAAs) in China during 2021–2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios). Based on the identification results, we further analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of and changes in drought in different seasons, agricultural regions, and time periods in China, and the detailed drought conditions on the Northeast China Plain. The results highlight that (1) the drought will abate, become slightly worse, and become significantly worse over time under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. (2) Seasonally, the main drought seasons exhibit a transition trend from spring-winter to summer-autumn over time. As the emission level increases, this transition trend becomes increasingly evident. Detailed results in the Northeast China Plain confirm this seasonal transition trend in China and indicate that droughts in the major grain-producing areas in summer require more attention for preparedness and mitigation. (3) Spatially, the Northeast China Plain, Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and the northern arid and semiarid region have the largest number of significant DSTAAs. These results will support relevant institutions in formulating strategies for drought preparedness and mitigation.