Resilience and vulnerability: perspectives of key informants on the uncertain future of Pacific salmon in British Columbia

A major challenge in contemporary aquatic environmental management is anticipating and responding to increasing social-ecological uncertainty and shifts in the health of managed species. Signals indicate that many wild North American Pacific salmon populations are in or at risk of decline, but the mechanisms affecting salmon resilience are not clear. There is a need to assess the resilience of species and stocks across the Pacific region from the perspective of groups involved in salmon work to direct effective management responses. Interviews were conducted with individuals (N = 32) holding diverse knowledges and salmon expertise including employees of federal government fisheries management organizations, non-governmental organizations, Indigenous agencies, and universities, to understand how perceptions of salmon resilience in the Pacific Northwest are changing over time, the factors that positively or negatively affect vulnerability and resilience, and variations across Pacific salmon species and stocks. We find that Pacific salmon resilience is negatively affected by interacting biological, environmental, and social pressures, with life history, geography, and increasing water temperatures viewed as the most significant drivers of declining resilience. Chinook and sockeye salmon are perceived as the most vulnerable and the most socially valued species, compounding the challenges for fisheries management and conservation. Species seen as highly resilient (chum and pink salmon) are viewed as being at risk of future increases in vulnerability if increasing conservation measures for more vulnerable species shift harvesting pressures towards more abundant species. We conclude by outlining anticipated social-ecological changes facing Pacific salmon and discuss areas of consensus for salmon conservation needs.