Modelling the impact of climate change on cultural practices: the future of fen skating (1981–2079)

Cultural practices reliant on the formation of ice are likely to be affected by climate change across the world. Outdoor skating is a popular pastime in many regions of North America, Asia and northern Europe. Fen skating is a traditional sport practiced in the flat area of east England, when shallowly flooded fields and meadows freeze to form large stretches of ice. To assess the future of fen skating, climate metrics were constructed to capture the freezing conditions needed for fen skating to take place. A skating freeze was defined as requiring the daily minimum temperature to be either (i) four nights below -4 °C, (ii) three nights below -5 °C or (iii) two nights below -8 °C. The 12 km resolution UKCP18 dataset was used to assess the frequency and duration of skating freezes in the fens for the period 1981 to 2079. Results from the 12 UKCP18 model members showed notable variability and only four model members successfully captured past skating freezes. Outputs from these four model members showed a rapid decrease in the frequency and duration of skating freezes, raising concerns over the future of this sport.