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<p>Carbon emissions trading serves as a crucial mechanism for reducing emissions. Studying whether power sector carbon allowance allocation can adjust power generation energy structures is therefore highly significant for achieving carbon peaking targets. Using Jiangsu Province as a case study, this paper decomposes the carbon peaking target using four principles (three equity-based and one efficiency-based). A power market equilibrium model simulates the impacts of different allocation methods on power generation energy structures. It is found that (1) under the three equitable allocation principles, allowances concentrate in economically developed or energy-rich cities, though resulting in lower carbon emission efficiency. Under the efficiency principle implemented via the Zero-Sum Gains Data Envelopment Analysis model, allowances concentrate in advanced cities with high carbon emission efficiency, while energy-intensive and inefficient cities face greater emission reduction pressure. (2) For cities that need to buy carbon credits, quota allocation reduces the proportion of their thermal power, and the opposite is true for cities that need to sell carbon credits. (3) Collectively, all allocation methods reduce the thermal power share. The affordability egalitarianism principle achieves the largest reduction, proving more conducive to balanced regional development. Consequently, we believe that this allocation method is more appropriate among the four allocation methods. The conclusions of this study can provide relevant suggestions and references for carbon trading policy design and renewable energy development.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Simulation of the impact of the carbon peak target allocation method on the energy structure of electricity generation—based on electricity market equilibrium modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月3日

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  • Qing Xu,
  • Jue Cui,
  • Feng Dong,
  • Yuling Pan

摘要

Carbon emissions trading serves as a crucial mechanism for reducing emissions. Studying whether power sector carbon allowance allocation can adjust power generation energy structures is therefore highly significant for achieving carbon peaking targets. Using Jiangsu Province as a case study, this paper decomposes the carbon peaking target using four principles (three equity-based and one efficiency-based). A power market equilibrium model simulates the impacts of different allocation methods on power generation energy structures. It is found that (1) under the three equitable allocation principles, allowances concentrate in economically developed or energy-rich cities, though resulting in lower carbon emission efficiency. Under the efficiency principle implemented via the Zero-Sum Gains Data Envelopment Analysis model, allowances concentrate in advanced cities with high carbon emission efficiency, while energy-intensive and inefficient cities face greater emission reduction pressure. (2) For cities that need to buy carbon credits, quota allocation reduces the proportion of their thermal power, and the opposite is true for cities that need to sell carbon credits. (3) Collectively, all allocation methods reduce the thermal power share. The affordability egalitarianism principle achieves the largest reduction, proving more conducive to balanced regional development. Consequently, we believe that this allocation method is more appropriate among the four allocation methods. The conclusions of this study can provide relevant suggestions and references for carbon trading policy design and renewable energy development.

Graphical Abstract