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<p>In recent decades, China’s cement industry’s CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (CICEs) have increased rapidly, comprising the largest source of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the industrial sector. This study systematically quantified provincial CICEs across three dimensions—process emissions, coal combustion, and net purchased electricity consumption—by leveraging the latest activity data and emission factors. The reliability of the CO<sub>2</sub> emission accounting was rigorously validated using clinker production line data. Furthermore, exploratory spatial data analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of CICEs and the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of driving factors. The results reveal that from 2005 to 2020, CICEs increased from 725 million tons (Mt) to 1415 Mt, with a relatively stable CO<sub>2</sub> emission structure. CICEs exhibit significant spatial clustering characteristics, predominantly characterized by High–High clustering areas, and their evolution can be summarized as an expansion from eastern regions to southwestern regions. In terms of driving factors, population size has the most substantial positive impact on CICEs’ growth, followed by urbanization rate. Their high-value areas are concentrated in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration. In contrast, economic development, technological progress, industrial structure rationalization, and environmental regulation predominantly suppress CICEs’ growth. Among these factors, the carbon reduction effect of industrial structure rationalization is the most pronounced and shows a gradually increasing trend over time, with the carbon constraint core shifting from South China to East China. The carbon reduction effect of economic development exhibits a “decreasing gradient from east to west” and “inverse coupling from north to south.” The carbon reduction effects of technological progress and environmental regulation have gradually weakened. Notably, technological progress has a more evident impact on major cement-producing provinces such as Hunan, Hubei, and Yunnan, while the influence of environmental regulation diminishes progressively from east to west. This study elucidates the carbon reduction pathways for the cement industry and highlights the importance of considering the spatiotemporal variations of different driving factors to implement targeted strategies addressing the carbon reduction challenges in the cement industry.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of CO2 emissions in China’s provincial cement industry: insights from the GTWR model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Zhenquan Shao,
  • Yalin Lei,
  • Wenhui Chen,
  • Li Li

摘要

In recent decades, China’s cement industry’s CO2 emissions (CICEs) have increased rapidly, comprising the largest source of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector. This study systematically quantified provincial CICEs across three dimensions—process emissions, coal combustion, and net purchased electricity consumption—by leveraging the latest activity data and emission factors. The reliability of the CO2 emission accounting was rigorously validated using clinker production line data. Furthermore, exploratory spatial data analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of CICEs and the spatiotemporal non-stationarity of driving factors. The results reveal that from 2005 to 2020, CICEs increased from 725 million tons (Mt) to 1415 Mt, with a relatively stable CO2 emission structure. CICEs exhibit significant spatial clustering characteristics, predominantly characterized by High–High clustering areas, and their evolution can be summarized as an expansion from eastern regions to southwestern regions. In terms of driving factors, population size has the most substantial positive impact on CICEs’ growth, followed by urbanization rate. Their high-value areas are concentrated in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration. In contrast, economic development, technological progress, industrial structure rationalization, and environmental regulation predominantly suppress CICEs’ growth. Among these factors, the carbon reduction effect of industrial structure rationalization is the most pronounced and shows a gradually increasing trend over time, with the carbon constraint core shifting from South China to East China. The carbon reduction effect of economic development exhibits a “decreasing gradient from east to west” and “inverse coupling from north to south.” The carbon reduction effects of technological progress and environmental regulation have gradually weakened. Notably, technological progress has a more evident impact on major cement-producing provinces such as Hunan, Hubei, and Yunnan, while the influence of environmental regulation diminishes progressively from east to west. This study elucidates the carbon reduction pathways for the cement industry and highlights the importance of considering the spatiotemporal variations of different driving factors to implement targeted strategies addressing the carbon reduction challenges in the cement industry.

Graphical abstract