<p>With global climate change and environmental degradation intensifying, green development has become a central focus of economic policies worldwide. Green total factor productivity (GTFP) has become a crucial metric for sustainable economic development, reflecting not only the efficiency of resource use but also the environmental impact of production processes. This study explores the impact of China’s GTFP on the trade stability of 65 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and in the Asia–Pacific region, using data from 2002 to 2021. The study yields several key findings: (1) China’s GTFP significantly increase the trade sensitivity and vulnerability of its trading partners. (2) Low-income countries, which are more dependent on China’s green transition, experience greater trade instability, while high-income countries are less affected. (3) Geographically, countries further from China are more vulnerable due to their reliance on global supply chains, whereas neighboring countries are less impacted due to stronger regional economic ties. (4) Culturally similar countries show greater resilience to fluctuations in China’s GTFP, likely because of stronger historical and institutional connections. These findings provide valuable insights for managing the trade implications of China’s green transition and for fostering more sustainable and resilient trade relations.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>