<p>Circular economy (CE) has developed into an important framework for sustainable development. CE is an economic concept that resolves the limitations of the unsustainable linear economy, where materials follow a linear flow from extraction to disposal. CE addresses this limitation by promoting recirculation of materials within an economic system, thereby prolonging their economic value. Numerical circular economy indicators (CEIs) are vital for monitoring the progress of any transition toward CE by key stakeholders. These CEIs vary in design, so policymakers need to decide which CEI will be most appropriately integrated into the action plans. Most CEIs, however, only measure circularity and do not directly reflect the intended outcomes of CE. Improper use can result in unintended consequences, such as rebound effects and environmental problem shifting. Environmental problem shifting occurs when reduction in one impact category occurs at the expense of increasing other impact categories. Since following a CEI can lead to lock-ins that will have long-term implications, it is important to be able to anticipate such effects. This study presents a mathematical model that empirically evaluates the implications of integrating a singular CEI in an economic system. The model utilizes the environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) framework in representing the economic system. The model utilizes change coefficients to represent interventions from CE action plans. A case study is presented wherein the Philippine economic system will follow a single indicator from a set of four CEIs. Results show that environmental problem shifting can occur for specific CEIs. This modeling framework is generally applicable and can be used by policymakers to estimate the unintended consequences of a CEI and to generate insights for recalibrating action plans.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>