Carbon emission pinch analysis for transformation of Polish power generation sector
摘要
Poland is taking serious measures to decarbonize its electricity generation sector by 2050 in response to the global climate emergency. However, the pathway to reach this carbon neutrality target is still uncertain, given Poland’s current dependence on fossil fuels. Different decarbonization measures need to be examined and combined to achieve substantial reductions. In this work, carbon emission pinch analysis is used to plan and visualize deep emission's cuts for such a transition. Multiple scenarios were proposed in order for Polish energy generation sector to reach its CO2 emission targets in 2030 and 2040. For instance, in Scenario 1, relative to 2022, hard coal was reduced by 36 times, and lignite was eliminated completely; while natural gas, onshore wind, agricultural biomass and photovoltaics have huge increase (238%, 154%, 235% and 301%, respectively), apart from having additional nuclear and offshore wind power (38 TWh and 61 TWh, respectively). Doing this achieves the 2040 emission target of 28.06 Mt CO2-eq/year. These results provide realistic benchmarks for the development and implementation of policies to realize Poland’s decarbonization ambitions.
Graphical abstract