Can digital trade promote the low-carbon development of China’s transport sector

The transport sector is a key contributor to the growth of carbon emissions in developing countries, and digital trade could potentially improve efficiency in the transport sector. In this study, the entropy weight TOPSIS model is used to calculate the digital trade index. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021, this study constructs the extended STIRPAT model, a mediating effect model, and panel threshold model to investigate the mechanism and influence of the digital trade on carbon emission reduction of the transportation sector. Empirical results indicate that digital trade significantly reduces carbon emissions in the transport sector. The mediating effect of industrial scale significantly promotes carbon emissions, while the mediating effect of technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading significantly suppresses carbon emissions. Compared to the central and low-income regions, the emission reduction effect of digital trade is greater in the eastern and high-income regions. Digital trade has a threshold effect on carbon emissions in the transportation sector. Specifically, when the clean energy structure and transportation structure exceed a certain level, the carbon reduction effect of digital trade in the transportation industry is greater. Our findings could help shape policies to leverage the role of digital trade in the pursuit of carbon neutrality in the transport sector.