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Background <p>This study extensively investigated the disease burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in young and middle-aged populations (15–49 years old) in Asia from 1990 to 2021.</p> Methods <p>We used data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to quantify health burden. Risk factors were analyzed. Joinpoint regression models described the temporal trend of the disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied for forecasting the disease burden of IS till 2040.</p> Results <p>The incidence of IS among young and middle-aged people in Asia increased by more than 80%, and IS mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) increased by more than 40% over the past 32 years. The rising trend of incidence was the most significant (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.8887, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALYs in East Asia were the highest. In 2021, the disease burden of males in the age group of 15–49 was greater than that of females, while the 45–49 age group had the most severe disease burden. Risk factor analysis shows that high systolic blood pressure was the biggest risk factor. By 2040, the IS incidence rate among young and middle-aged people aged 15–49 in Asia will reach 25.20, an increase of about 12% compared to 2022.</p> Conclusion <p>For 15-49-year-old Asians, the disease burden of IS increases continuously. In the future, medical measures for this age group should focus on prevention. This trend will become even more serious if no intervention is applied in the future.</p>

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The burden of ischemic stroke and its attributable risk factors among people aged 15–49 years in Asia, 1990–2021: results from the global burden of disease study 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月23日

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  • Zengxin Han,
  • Tongyan Liu,
  • Shuo Wang,
  • Wei Sun,
  • Wenqi Qiao

摘要

Background

This study extensively investigated the disease burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in young and middle-aged populations (15–49 years old) in Asia from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

We used data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to quantify health burden. Risk factors were analyzed. Joinpoint regression models described the temporal trend of the disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied for forecasting the disease burden of IS till 2040.

Results

The incidence of IS among young and middle-aged people in Asia increased by more than 80%, and IS mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) increased by more than 40% over the past 32 years. The rising trend of incidence was the most significant (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 1.8887, P < 0.001). In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALYs in East Asia were the highest. In 2021, the disease burden of males in the age group of 15–49 was greater than that of females, while the 45–49 age group had the most severe disease burden. Risk factor analysis shows that high systolic blood pressure was the biggest risk factor. By 2040, the IS incidence rate among young and middle-aged people aged 15–49 in Asia will reach 25.20, an increase of about 12% compared to 2022.

Conclusion

For 15-49-year-old Asians, the disease burden of IS increases continuously. In the future, medical measures for this age group should focus on prevention. This trend will become even more serious if no intervention is applied in the future.