Objective This study aimed to analyze the trends and disease burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) globally from 1992 to 2021, revealing temporal dynamics and regional disparities to provide scientific evidence for epidemiological research and public health policies. Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), this study employed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. Additionally, a Bayesian model was used to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2040. Results From 1992 to 2021, the global number of RA cases increased from approximately 202,000 to 327,000, with the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rising from 15.34 to 16.57 per 100,000, representing an annual net drift of 0.42%. High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest incidence (22.77/100,000 in 2021) but showed stable trends, while low SDI regions had the lowest incidence (7.84/100,000 in 2021) but exhibited faster growth (annual net drift of 0.75%). Middle-low SDI regions experienced the fastest growth in incidence (annual net drift of 1.07%). RA risk increased with age, peaking in the 45–49 age group. India saw a significant rise in RA cases, while China showed a declining trend. By 2040, the number of RA cases was projected to reach approximately 378000, with global ASIR expected to show moderate growth but persistent regional disparities. Conclusion This study revealed the complex epidemiological landscape of RA among women of childbearing age, with global incidence continuing to rise, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. It emphasized the importance of region-specific prevention and management strategies to address the growing burden of RA.<Table Float="No" ID="Taba"> <tgroup cols="2"> <colspec align="left" colname="c1" colnum="1" /> <colspec align="left" colname="c2" colnum="2" /> <tbody> <row> <entry align="left" nameend="c2" namest="c1"> Key Points • A significant increase in RA cases globally, from approximately 202,000 in 1992 to 327,000 in 2021, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rising from 15.34 to 16.57 per 100,000. • Regional disparities in RA burden, with high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions showing the highest incidence (22.77/100,000 in 2021) but stable trends, while low and middle-low SDI regions exhibit the fastest growth (annual net drift of 0.75% and 1.07%, respectively). • Age-specific patterns, with RA risk peaking in the 45-49 age group.Projections indicating a continued rise in RA cases, reaching approximately 378000 by 2040, with persistent regional disparities. • This study highlights the complex epidemiological landscape of RA among women of childbearing age, emphasizing the need for region-specific prevention and management strategies to address the growing burden, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. </entry> </row> </tbody> </tgroup> </Table>

Global temporal trends and projections of rheumatoid arthritis incidence among women of childbearing age: age-period-cohort analysis 2021

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年2月4日

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Feng Zhang,
Li Ying Wang,
Ping Wang,
Jing Zhang,
Xiao Yan Wang,
Li Li Wang,
Li Jing Wang,
Li Wei Wang,
Shuo Feng

摘要

Objective

This study aimed to analyze the trends and disease burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) globally from 1992 to 2021, revealing temporal dynamics and regional disparities to provide scientific evidence for epidemiological research and public health policies.

Methods

Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), this study employed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. Additionally, a Bayesian model was used to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2040.

Results

From 1992 to 2021, the global number of RA cases increased from approximately 202,000 to 327,000, with the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rising from 15.34 to 16.57 per 100,000, representing an annual net drift of 0.42%. High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest incidence (22.77/100,000 in 2021) but showed stable trends, while low SDI regions had the lowest incidence (7.84/100,000 in 2021) but exhibited faster growth (annual net drift of 0.75%). Middle-low SDI regions experienced the fastest growth in incidence (annual net drift of 1.07%). RA risk increased with age, peaking in the 45–49 age group. India saw a significant rise in RA cases, while China showed a declining trend. By 2040, the number of RA cases was projected to reach approximately 378000, with global ASIR expected to show moderate growth but persistent regional disparities.

Conclusion

This study revealed the complex epidemiological landscape of RA among women of childbearing age, with global incidence continuing to rise, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. It emphasized the importance of region-specific prevention and management strategies to address the growing burden of RA.

Key Points

• A significant increase in RA cases globally, from approximately 202,000 in 1992 to 327,000 in 2021, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rising from 15.34 to 16.57 per 100,000.

• Regional disparities in RA burden, with high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions showing the highest incidence (22.77/100,000 in 2021) but stable trends, while low and middle-low SDI regions exhibit the fastest growth (annual net drift of 0.75% and 1.07%, respectively).

• Age-specific patterns, with RA risk peaking in the 45-49 age group.Projections indicating a continued rise in RA cases, reaching approximately 378000 by 2040, with persistent regional disparities.

• This study highlights the complex epidemiological landscape of RA among women of childbearing age, emphasizing the need for region-specific prevention and management strategies to address the growing burden, particularly in low- and middle-income regions.