Stability and reliability analysis of rock slope based on parameter conditioned random field

Systematic evaluation of the geotechnical parameters of rock slopes facilitates predicting the risk level of slope excavation processes and reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering. The distribution of geomechanical parameters of rock slopes is complex, and accurately determining the value and spatial distribution of rock mass parameters is crucial for predicting slope stability. The field-measured data is adopted to determine conditioned random fields based on the Kriging method to speculate the distribution of slope shear strength parameters. The uncertainties in shear strength parameters (friction angle and cohesion) are considered, and parameter random fields are established. The reliability analysis of the rock slope is accomplished by the multivariate adaptive regression splines method. The validity of the process is verified by taking the left bank excavation slope of Jinping I (JP-1 for short) hydropower station as an instance, and the influence of the fluctuation scale on the slope stability analysis is explored. The results show that the approach can efficaciously determine the parameter distribution, establish the parameter random fields, and evaluate the slope reliability. The failure probability of slope increases with the increase of the fluctuation scale.