Economic benefits of COVID-19 screening tests

We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, first before vaccines were available then during the vaccine rollout. We find that, before vaccines, the fiscal, macroeconomic, and health benefits of rapid SARS-CoV-2 screening testing programs would have far exceeded their costs, with the ratio of economic benefits to costs typically in the range of 2–15 (depending on program details), not counting the monetized value of lives saved. The macroeconomic cost–benefit analysis remains strongly positive after vaccines become available, although the increase in tax revenue might not fully cover the program cost. Confirmatory testing increases the net economic benefits of screening tests by reducing the number of healthy workers in quarantine and by increasing adherence to quarantine measures. The analysis is undertaken using a behavioral SIR model for the United States with 5 age groups, 66 economic sectors, screening and diagnostic testing, and partial adherence to instructions to quarantine or to isolate.