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<p>Groundwater salinization threatens water security for 30,000 inhabitants of Siwa Oasis, Egypt, who depend on two aquifer systems: The shallow Tertiary Carbonate Aquifer (TCA) and deeper Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSSA). This study elucidates salinity sources and quantifies inter-aquifer mixing dynamics using an integrated approach combining self-organizing map (SOM) analysis, NETPATH inverse modeling, multiple isotopic tracers (δ<sup>1</sup>⁸O, δ<sup>2</sup>H, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, <sup>13</sup>C, <sup>14</sup>C), and 3D numerical modeling with reverse particle tracking. Analysis of 153 water samples revealed three distinct hydrochemical groups: High salinity TCA waters influenced by evaporation and recharge from salt lakes, intermediate salinity mixing zones, and low-salinity NSSA paleowaters aged 4,300–14,200&#xa0;years. Salt lake contributions to TCA groundwater salinity range from 0.6–18%, while fault-controlled NSSA discharge contributes 52–90% to TCA recharge. Predictive modeling indicates the non-renewable groundwaters in the NSSA will experience 30–40&#xa0;m of drawdown by 2100 under current groundwater abstraction rates, exacerbating TCA salinization. These findings provide a framework for sustainable groundwater management in complex arid aquifer systems and highlight the urgent need for protection of fault-controlled recharge zones.</p>

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Integrated assessment of groundwater salinity sources and inter-aquifer mixing dynamics in Siwa Oasis, Egypt: A multi-method approach using self-organizing maps, isotopic tracers, and numerical modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月2日

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  • Mohamed Hamdy Eid,
  • Mustafa Eissa,
  • Viktoria Mikita,
  • Czímer Bence,
  • László Palcsu,
  • Attila Kovács,
  • Péter Szűcs

摘要

Groundwater salinization threatens water security for 30,000 inhabitants of Siwa Oasis, Egypt, who depend on two aquifer systems: The shallow Tertiary Carbonate Aquifer (TCA) and deeper Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSSA). This study elucidates salinity sources and quantifies inter-aquifer mixing dynamics using an integrated approach combining self-organizing map (SOM) analysis, NETPATH inverse modeling, multiple isotopic tracers (δ1⁸O, δ2H, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, 13C, 14C), and 3D numerical modeling with reverse particle tracking. Analysis of 153 water samples revealed three distinct hydrochemical groups: High salinity TCA waters influenced by evaporation and recharge from salt lakes, intermediate salinity mixing zones, and low-salinity NSSA paleowaters aged 4,300–14,200 years. Salt lake contributions to TCA groundwater salinity range from 0.6–18%, while fault-controlled NSSA discharge contributes 52–90% to TCA recharge. Predictive modeling indicates the non-renewable groundwaters in the NSSA will experience 30–40 m of drawdown by 2100 under current groundwater abstraction rates, exacerbating TCA salinization. These findings provide a framework for sustainable groundwater management in complex arid aquifer systems and highlight the urgent need for protection of fault-controlled recharge zones.