<p>Soil covers with an elevated water table (EWT) are among the various reclamation methods developed to control acid mine drainage. The performance and water balance of EWT systems are closely interrelated, making climatic conditions and vegetation status crucial for assessing their long-term efficiency. This study analyzed the effects of projected climate and anticipated future forest conditions on water balance using SEEP/W numerical simulations. The study involved model calibration with field percolations and degrees of saturation (<i>S</i>_r) in cover layers of three instrumented experimental cells, including a non-vegetated control cell and two others comparing different vegetation types. Ratios of cumulative evapotranspiration (<i>E</i>) to cumulative percolation (<i>P</i>), <i>E</i> to cumulative rainfall (<i>R</i>), and <i>P</i>/<i>R</i> were calculated to analyze the outputs. Results showed that if the current vegetation persisted, climate change led to higher <i>E</i>/<i>R</i> and <i>P</i>/<i>R</i> ratios for all the cells, resulting in higher groundwater recharge by precipitation; the cover was found to be efficient for most of the growing season. Considering the final forest vegetation under the current climate, higher <i>E</i> and lower <i>P</i> than current conditions (<i>E</i>/<i>R</i> = 98.6%, <i>P</i>/<i>R</i> = 0%) and loss of performance of the cover were predicted (<i>S</i>_r &lt; 85% and a phreatic level below the air entry value of reactive tailings). Finally, adding climate change to late-successional vegetation scenarios did not significantly change the outputs compared to late vegetation only. This preliminary exploratory study suggests that the long-term impact of vegetation on the performance of EWT covers should be carefully considered and monitored in future designs.</p>