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<p>This study explored the impact of geopolitical risks, political risks, income, and renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in Poland. The analysis covered the period from 1993 to 2020, employing Autometrics, a machine learning–based econometric approach. The estimation results demonstrated that both geopolitical risk and income exert a positive and statistically significant effect on CO₂ emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in geopolitical risks and income corresponds to a 1.27% and 0.43% rise in CO₂ emissions, respectively. This positive association may be attributed to the fact that when geopolitical risks intensify, countries are prioritizing energy security, relegating environmental issues to a secondary place. This may lead to an increase in the share of fossil fuels, thereby resulting in higher CO₂ emissions. Conversely, political risks and renewable energy consumption were found to have a negative impact on CO₂ emissions. A 1% increase in political risk (A rise in the political risk index signifies less political risk (higher political stability).) and renewable energy consumption results in a decline by 0.67% and 0.19% in CO2 emissions, respectively. This study discusses various policy options designed to stimulate environmental quality.</p>

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Do geopolitical risks affect environmental degradation in Poland? New evidence from an autometrics-based framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Shahriyar Mukhtarov,
  • Hasan Selcuk,
  • Mayis Aziziov,
  • Farid Jabiyev,
  • Davut Han Aslan

摘要

This study explored the impact of geopolitical risks, political risks, income, and renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in Poland. The analysis covered the period from 1993 to 2020, employing Autometrics, a machine learning–based econometric approach. The estimation results demonstrated that both geopolitical risk and income exert a positive and statistically significant effect on CO₂ emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in geopolitical risks and income corresponds to a 1.27% and 0.43% rise in CO₂ emissions, respectively. This positive association may be attributed to the fact that when geopolitical risks intensify, countries are prioritizing energy security, relegating environmental issues to a secondary place. This may lead to an increase in the share of fossil fuels, thereby resulting in higher CO₂ emissions. Conversely, political risks and renewable energy consumption were found to have a negative impact on CO₂ emissions. A 1% increase in political risk (A rise in the political risk index signifies less political risk (higher political stability).) and renewable energy consumption results in a decline by 0.67% and 0.19% in CO2 emissions, respectively. This study discusses various policy options designed to stimulate environmental quality.