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<p>This paper uses a fit-for-purpose large multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the consequences of the World Energy Prices (WEP) shock in Bangladesh and analyses intervention choices to re-stabilise the trajectory as maintaining a stabilised economy is a key prerequisite for the green transition. Results from static simulations show that the&#xa0;WEP shock disrupts both macro and micro-level activities in Bangladesh by impacting domestic energy prices. There is also a decline in income and consumption at the household level. Additionally, the consequences of the WEP shock are effectively mitigated by the&#xa0;Revenue-Neutral Fiscal (RNF) measures. Dynamic simulation analyses, on the other hand, show that the key macroeconomic variables reach steady-state levels in 10–25&#xa0;years, but the effects tend to become negligible even before that time (usually by 4–5&#xa0;years). Based on the results, some policy implications for energy sector reform and energy security are provided to set the course towards the green transition journey.</p>

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Reviving the green transition process in the post-pandemic Era: the case of Bangladesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月5日

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  • Sakib Bin Amin,
  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary,
  • Farhan Khan,
  • Bismi Iqbal Samia

摘要

This paper uses a fit-for-purpose large multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the consequences of the World Energy Prices (WEP) shock in Bangladesh and analyses intervention choices to re-stabilise the trajectory as maintaining a stabilised economy is a key prerequisite for the green transition. Results from static simulations show that the WEP shock disrupts both macro and micro-level activities in Bangladesh by impacting domestic energy prices. There is also a decline in income and consumption at the household level. Additionally, the consequences of the WEP shock are effectively mitigated by the Revenue-Neutral Fiscal (RNF) measures. Dynamic simulation analyses, on the other hand, show that the key macroeconomic variables reach steady-state levels in 10–25 years, but the effects tend to become negligible even before that time (usually by 4–5 years). Based on the results, some policy implications for energy sector reform and energy security are provided to set the course towards the green transition journey.