Asymmetric impacts of renewable energy and economic development in North Africa countries: evidence from the NARDL model

This article examines the asymmetric impacts of renewable energy production on economic development in North Africa countries. It emphasizes the pressing concern of increasing energy demand, projected to double by 2040 due to urbanization, population growth, economic expansion, and climate change. We adopt the methodology of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model using annual data over the period 1990–2021. The results indicate that the hypothesis of asymmetry in the relationship between GDP per capita and renewable energy in the long term (short term) is significant for Algeria, Egypt and Morocco. While for Tunisia, the results do not confirm a short-term or long-term relationship between GDP per capita and renewable electricity production. This result can be explained by the low level of renewable energy production. Therefore, North Africa region must continue promoting this sector to better leverage its positive impact on long-term development. However, these countries remain heavily dependent on oil resources, and redirecting support to renewable energy producers to increase the share of renewable energy in the total energy mix is not automatic.