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Objective <p>This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project the future incidence of untreated caries in permanent teeth in the BRICS countries.</p> Materials and methods <p>Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. A joinpoint model was used to examine the trends in disease burden. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze the trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to make projections of incidence for the next two decades.</p> Result <p>A total of 1,068.31&#xa0;million cases of untreated caries in permanent teeth were found in BRICS countries in 2021, accounting for 45.07% of the global number. The incidence in most of the BRICS countries showed an increasing trend between 1992 and 2021. APC analyses indicated a net drift below 0 in most of the BRICS countries. The peak incidence was observed in people aged 20–24 years for most of the BRICS countries. There was a downward trend in the period rate ratio (RR) in BRICS countries except China and Russia. Compared to younger birth cohorts, older birth cohorts exhibited higher risks in most of the BRICS countries. It is projected that from 2022 to 2041, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for both males and females in most of BRICS countries may decline.</p> Conclusions <p>In conclusion, the burden of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth remains significantly high in BRICS countries, with age, time period, and birth cohort significantly affecting the incidence. All BRICS countries need to improve public health policies to mitigate this public concern, especially for high-risk groups.</p> Clinical relevance <p>The ASIR of untreated caries in permanent teeth in most BRICS countries may decrease in the next twenty years by projections, but the burden of disease remains high in the BRICS countries. It is crucial for BRICS countries to enhance public health policies related to caries prevention and treatment for high-risk populations.</p>

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Trends in incidence of untreated caries in permanent teeth in BRICS countries: an age-period-cohort analysis from 1992 to 2021 and projections for the next two decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月24日

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  • Yushan Huang,
  • Lu Hao,
  • Jin Li,
  • Weizhen Guan,
  • Shunhang Li,
  • Yilin Zhang,
  • Xiaoshuang Xu,
  • Jing Li,
  • Xin Xu

摘要

Objective

This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project the future incidence of untreated caries in permanent teeth in the BRICS countries.

Materials and methods

Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. A joinpoint model was used to examine the trends in disease burden. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze the trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to make projections of incidence for the next two decades.

Result

A total of 1,068.31 million cases of untreated caries in permanent teeth were found in BRICS countries in 2021, accounting for 45.07% of the global number. The incidence in most of the BRICS countries showed an increasing trend between 1992 and 2021. APC analyses indicated a net drift below 0 in most of the BRICS countries. The peak incidence was observed in people aged 20–24 years for most of the BRICS countries. There was a downward trend in the period rate ratio (RR) in BRICS countries except China and Russia. Compared to younger birth cohorts, older birth cohorts exhibited higher risks in most of the BRICS countries. It is projected that from 2022 to 2041, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for both males and females in most of BRICS countries may decline.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the burden of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth remains significantly high in BRICS countries, with age, time period, and birth cohort significantly affecting the incidence. All BRICS countries need to improve public health policies to mitigate this public concern, especially for high-risk groups.

Clinical relevance

The ASIR of untreated caries in permanent teeth in most BRICS countries may decrease in the next twenty years by projections, but the burden of disease remains high in the BRICS countries. It is crucial for BRICS countries to enhance public health policies related to caries prevention and treatment for high-risk populations.