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<p>Predicting exceedance probabilities of large roll angles due to parametric rolling in a given short-term sea state is crucial for ship safety. Various numerical simulation methods have been developed thus far, but it is still common sense that conducting a Monte Carlo-type experimental campaign is necessary for validation, which necessitates enormous time and costs. To address this issue, the present study leverages the first-order reliability method (FORM) to derive a deterministic wave episode, i.e. a design wave, which excites an extreme roll angle in a short time. The wave episode derived by FORM, named most probable wave episode (MPWE), associates with its exceedance probability for the target extreme. In the present study, MPWEs for the parametric rolling of a container ship are identified by using FORM with a single-degree-of-freedom (1DOF) numerical model, and the derived MPWEs are reproduced in a model basin. The validity of the 1DOF model to reproduce large roll angles in long-crested following and oblique following seas is examined by comparing to measured roll angles. Finally, given the fact that the present 1DOF model with a simple correction can accurately reproduce the parametric rolling in deterministic wave episodes, the validity of the mean outcrossing rate estimation using the 1DOF model is discussed by comparing to experimental measurements in long-time irregular waves.</p>

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Experimental study on extreme parametric rolling using design wave

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Tomoki Takami,
  • Katsutoshi Takeda,
  • Fuminori Yanagimoto,
  • Kinya Ishibashi,
  • Daichi Ota,
  • Naoya Umeda

摘要

Predicting exceedance probabilities of large roll angles due to parametric rolling in a given short-term sea state is crucial for ship safety. Various numerical simulation methods have been developed thus far, but it is still common sense that conducting a Monte Carlo-type experimental campaign is necessary for validation, which necessitates enormous time and costs. To address this issue, the present study leverages the first-order reliability method (FORM) to derive a deterministic wave episode, i.e. a design wave, which excites an extreme roll angle in a short time. The wave episode derived by FORM, named most probable wave episode (MPWE), associates with its exceedance probability for the target extreme. In the present study, MPWEs for the parametric rolling of a container ship are identified by using FORM with a single-degree-of-freedom (1DOF) numerical model, and the derived MPWEs are reproduced in a model basin. The validity of the 1DOF model to reproduce large roll angles in long-crested following and oblique following seas is examined by comparing to measured roll angles. Finally, given the fact that the present 1DOF model with a simple correction can accurately reproduce the parametric rolling in deterministic wave episodes, the validity of the mean outcrossing rate estimation using the 1DOF model is discussed by comparing to experimental measurements in long-time irregular waves.