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<p>This study investigates the determinants of Germany’s per-capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 2002Q1–2024Q4, focusing on thermal climate variability (heating and cooling degree days), macroeconomic activity, energy use, and ESG-Based Sustainability Uncertainty (ESGUI). Using the Residual Augmented Least Squares–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (RALS-ARDL) framework, which is designed to improve efficiency under non-normal disturbances and mixed integration orders, we estimate both direct and moderation (interaction) effects of ESGUI on the climate–emissions relationship. The results indicate that ESGUI exerts a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on CO₂ emissions, consistent with the real-options ‘investment delay’ channel whereby regulatory noise raises the option value of postponing irreversible low-carbon investments. Importantly, the interaction terms between ESGUI and thermal stressors are negative, implying that elevated sustainability uncertainty reduces the marginal responsiveness of emissions to temperature-related demand shocks. This conditional dampening is interpreted as a ‘stochastic freeze’ or thermal inelasticity: under heightened uncertainty, households and firms exhibit greater inertia in adapting their energy systems to climatic variation. The error correction term is negative and significant, indicating rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. The findings suggest that reducing sustainability policy noise and improving regulatory credibility are prerequisites for achieving Germany’s net-zero objectives while maintaining resilience to worsening climate extremes.</p>

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Climate anomalies and environmental quality in Germany: evaluating the moderating role of ESG-based sustainability uncertainty

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月18日

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  • Seyi Saint Akadiri,
  • Mehdi Seraj

摘要

This study investigates the determinants of Germany’s per-capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 2002Q1–2024Q4, focusing on thermal climate variability (heating and cooling degree days), macroeconomic activity, energy use, and ESG-Based Sustainability Uncertainty (ESGUI). Using the Residual Augmented Least Squares–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (RALS-ARDL) framework, which is designed to improve efficiency under non-normal disturbances and mixed integration orders, we estimate both direct and moderation (interaction) effects of ESGUI on the climate–emissions relationship. The results indicate that ESGUI exerts a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on CO₂ emissions, consistent with the real-options ‘investment delay’ channel whereby regulatory noise raises the option value of postponing irreversible low-carbon investments. Importantly, the interaction terms between ESGUI and thermal stressors are negative, implying that elevated sustainability uncertainty reduces the marginal responsiveness of emissions to temperature-related demand shocks. This conditional dampening is interpreted as a ‘stochastic freeze’ or thermal inelasticity: under heightened uncertainty, households and firms exhibit greater inertia in adapting their energy systems to climatic variation. The error correction term is negative and significant, indicating rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. The findings suggest that reducing sustainability policy noise and improving regulatory credibility are prerequisites for achieving Germany’s net-zero objectives while maintaining resilience to worsening climate extremes.