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<p>Drought is a recurrently occurring extreme hydrological event for almost every year in Bangladesh. Frequent occurrences of droughts have significantly impacted the northern part of the country. Therefore, the current study focuses on the comprehensive characterization of meteorological droughts in the northern part of Bangladesh by analyzing drought indices derived from the long-term climatic data. This study evaluates drought trends in Bangladesh by integrating RAI and multi-timescale SPI over 42 years (1982–2023) within a unified statistical framework, providing a comparative analysis that is largely absent in prior research in Bangladesh. The SPI computed with multiple time scales, including 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months, was adopted to identify critical drought episodes by assessing their frequency, duration, intensity, and severity for describing temporal and seasonal characteristics of droughts. The results indicated that the RAI-based annual analysis showed a total of 9 extreme dry years, where 37.93% of drought years were found to be very dry across the study area. The average duration of the drought was found to be 5.21 months. Furthermore, approximately 38.99% of the very dry droughts were observed to occur in October. The droughts were found to be reaching their peaks in January in 68.28% of cases. It can be finally concluded that the analysis of RAI and SPI across multiple locations and years in the current study provides an effective framework that could be applied for drought assessment and monitoring in other monsoon-dependent regions under climate variability stressors.</p>

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Changing patterns of meteorological droughts across the northern part of Bangladesh using RAI and SPI-based indices

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月18日

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  • Md Abrarul Hoque,
  • Sajal Kumar Adhikary,
  • Abdullah All Noman,
  • Rubinoor Islam,
  • Md. Abul Kalam Azad,
  • Md. Zakir Hossain,
  • Md. Iftakhar-Ul Islam

摘要

Drought is a recurrently occurring extreme hydrological event for almost every year in Bangladesh. Frequent occurrences of droughts have significantly impacted the northern part of the country. Therefore, the current study focuses on the comprehensive characterization of meteorological droughts in the northern part of Bangladesh by analyzing drought indices derived from the long-term climatic data. This study evaluates drought trends in Bangladesh by integrating RAI and multi-timescale SPI over 42 years (1982–2023) within a unified statistical framework, providing a comparative analysis that is largely absent in prior research in Bangladesh. The SPI computed with multiple time scales, including 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months, was adopted to identify critical drought episodes by assessing their frequency, duration, intensity, and severity for describing temporal and seasonal characteristics of droughts. The results indicated that the RAI-based annual analysis showed a total of 9 extreme dry years, where 37.93% of drought years were found to be very dry across the study area. The average duration of the drought was found to be 5.21 months. Furthermore, approximately 38.99% of the very dry droughts were observed to occur in October. The droughts were found to be reaching their peaks in January in 68.28% of cases. It can be finally concluded that the analysis of RAI and SPI across multiple locations and years in the current study provides an effective framework that could be applied for drought assessment and monitoring in other monsoon-dependent regions under climate variability stressors.