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<p>Climate change is altering the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme hydro-meteorological events that have a strong influence on the surface water systems. Although various direct inputs of pollution are often viewed as the main factors that lead to water-quality degradation, climate-based changes in temperature and precipitation become more and more basic stressors due to changes in thermal regimes, runoff processes, and dilution ability. This study assesses the CMIP6 multi-model ensembles based on historical (1981–2014) and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios to assess future climatic extremes and compound hydrometeorological stressors in India. The influence of climatic variables on water-quality processes was examined by analysing variability in extreme precipitation intensity, dry spells, temperature extremes, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and their seasonal interactions. Results indicate robust warming effect in all the scenarios. Stronger nighttime warming leading to a consistent DTR decline of -1.6 to -2.2&#xa0;°C by end-century. Dry spells are increased in several parts of the country with consecutive dry days (CDD) rising by 30–45 days by end century. The drastic rainfall occur during the monsoon and post-monsoon. Thermal restructuring by moisture is a prevailing hydrometeorological stressor reflected by the high seasonal correlation between precipitation and DTR suppression (<i>r</i> = -0.8 to -0.85 and <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01). The frequency of compound hot‑wet events shows a clear increasing tendency under SSP5‑8.5 by the end of the century, raising the likelihood of episodic runoff loading and enhanced thermal stress. This study presents a climate diagnostic assessment of hydro-meteorological stressors relevant to surface-water vulnerability.</p>

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Projected climate extremes and compound hydro-meteorological stressors across India based on CMIP6 multi-model ensembles

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月13日

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  • Mohit Singh,
  • Richa Kumari,
  • Shray Pathak,
  • Athar Hussain

摘要

Climate change is altering the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme hydro-meteorological events that have a strong influence on the surface water systems. Although various direct inputs of pollution are often viewed as the main factors that lead to water-quality degradation, climate-based changes in temperature and precipitation become more and more basic stressors due to changes in thermal regimes, runoff processes, and dilution ability. This study assesses the CMIP6 multi-model ensembles based on historical (1981–2014) and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios to assess future climatic extremes and compound hydrometeorological stressors in India. The influence of climatic variables on water-quality processes was examined by analysing variability in extreme precipitation intensity, dry spells, temperature extremes, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and their seasonal interactions. Results indicate robust warming effect in all the scenarios. Stronger nighttime warming leading to a consistent DTR decline of -1.6 to -2.2 °C by end-century. Dry spells are increased in several parts of the country with consecutive dry days (CDD) rising by 30–45 days by end century. The drastic rainfall occur during the monsoon and post-monsoon. Thermal restructuring by moisture is a prevailing hydrometeorological stressor reflected by the high seasonal correlation between precipitation and DTR suppression (r = -0.8 to -0.85 and p < 0.01). The frequency of compound hot‑wet events shows a clear increasing tendency under SSP5‑8.5 by the end of the century, raising the likelihood of episodic runoff loading and enhanced thermal stress. This study presents a climate diagnostic assessment of hydro-meteorological stressors relevant to surface-water vulnerability.