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<p>Rapid land use and land cover change (LUCC) has emerged as a critical driver of regional hydro-climatic alterations in major metropolitan areas, yet its impacts on modulating the terrestrial water cycle exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Here, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to quantify the impacts of LUCC on water budget over China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Two land-cover scenarios, a dynamic (DYN) experiment incorporating historical LUCC evolution and a control (CTL) experiment with fixed land cover scenario, were designed to isolate the LUCC effects on regional hydrology. Our results showed that urbanization has led to a 92.3% expansion of built-up land in 2020 relative to 1980, while vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI) has remarkably increased by 0.05&#xa0;m²/m² per decade since the 1980s. Scenario experiments revealed that while LUCC has negligible effects on the domain-averaged water budget, it has driven a profound spatial redistribution of water balance components. A distinct “Northwest Increase, Southeast Decrease” dipole pattern was identified across precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and water storage (ΔS = P−ET − R), potentially suggesting that LUCC-induced moisture shifts have intensified regional hydrological imbalance and groundwater overexploitation in the southern BTH. We highlight the necessity of integrating land-atmosphere feedbacks into regional water resource management and ecological restoration to mitigate water availability inequalities in highly urbanized and water-stressed regions.</p>

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Land use and cover change intensifies the North–South water imbalance in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Yanan Cao,
  • Siyu Wang,
  • Zhipeng Wang,
  • Fei Liu,
  • Wei Shi,
  • Ben Niu,
  • Yunpu Zheng

摘要

Rapid land use and land cover change (LUCC) has emerged as a critical driver of regional hydro-climatic alterations in major metropolitan areas, yet its impacts on modulating the terrestrial water cycle exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Here, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to quantify the impacts of LUCC on water budget over China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Two land-cover scenarios, a dynamic (DYN) experiment incorporating historical LUCC evolution and a control (CTL) experiment with fixed land cover scenario, were designed to isolate the LUCC effects on regional hydrology. Our results showed that urbanization has led to a 92.3% expansion of built-up land in 2020 relative to 1980, while vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI) has remarkably increased by 0.05 m²/m² per decade since the 1980s. Scenario experiments revealed that while LUCC has negligible effects on the domain-averaged water budget, it has driven a profound spatial redistribution of water balance components. A distinct “Northwest Increase, Southeast Decrease” dipole pattern was identified across precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and water storage (ΔS = P−ET − R), potentially suggesting that LUCC-induced moisture shifts have intensified regional hydrological imbalance and groundwater overexploitation in the southern BTH. We highlight the necessity of integrating land-atmosphere feedbacks into regional water resource management and ecological restoration to mitigate water availability inequalities in highly urbanized and water-stressed regions.