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<p>Rapid urbanization and land-use changes have created significant spatial and temporal changes in land surface temperature (LST) and urban heat island (UHI) effects in Indo-Gangetic plain. These effects are important for climate-resilient planning in vulnerable regions. In this paper, the thermal environment of Patna district is investigated from a seasonal, diurnal, and land-use perspective, using a three-phase framework: (1) mapping diurnal LST and UHI intensity using satellite data, (2) Seasonal Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests for trend analysis and (3) Land Use–Land Cover (LULC) classification. Further, UHI hotspots and coldspots were identified using locally weighted regression, and statistically significant clusters were identified using local Moran's I. Results indicate strong seasonal and diurnal contrasts in urban thermal patterns. SMK analysis did not detect any monotonic trends in LST, although a significant decrease in diurnal UHI intensity (Z = -2.66, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) was detected. This reflects the diminishing diurnal thermal contrast, and significant rise in winter night-time LST for maximum (Z = 2.66, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) and mean values (Z = 2.79, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), suggesting stronger nocturnal heat retention. Spatial autocorrelation confirmed the decreasing clustering of summer hotspots (HH). LULC analysis showed that urban expansion during 2009–2024 was significant, with built-up land increasing at the expense of agriculture and vegetation, and by 2024, built-up areas predominated, indicating a structural transformation. Four simulation scenarios were examined and the combination of all the scenarios resulted in the least UHI intensity. Lastly, a five-category composite urban vulnerability index (CUVI) was developed using weighted linear aggregation of normalized indices. The practical implication of this research extends to targeted initiatives and policy interventions.</p>

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Spatio-temporal assessment of urban heat island dynamics and vulnerability in Patna district, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月13日

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  • Dheeraj Kumar Ravi,
  • Shruti Gupta,
  • Abhinav Singh,
  • Nazeel Sabah,
  • Mirza Razi Imam Baig

摘要

Rapid urbanization and land-use changes have created significant spatial and temporal changes in land surface temperature (LST) and urban heat island (UHI) effects in Indo-Gangetic plain. These effects are important for climate-resilient planning in vulnerable regions. In this paper, the thermal environment of Patna district is investigated from a seasonal, diurnal, and land-use perspective, using a three-phase framework: (1) mapping diurnal LST and UHI intensity using satellite data, (2) Seasonal Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests for trend analysis and (3) Land Use–Land Cover (LULC) classification. Further, UHI hotspots and coldspots were identified using locally weighted regression, and statistically significant clusters were identified using local Moran's I. Results indicate strong seasonal and diurnal contrasts in urban thermal patterns. SMK analysis did not detect any monotonic trends in LST, although a significant decrease in diurnal UHI intensity (Z = -2.66, p < 0.01) was detected. This reflects the diminishing diurnal thermal contrast, and significant rise in winter night-time LST for maximum (Z = 2.66, p < 0.01) and mean values (Z = 2.79, p < 0.01), suggesting stronger nocturnal heat retention. Spatial autocorrelation confirmed the decreasing clustering of summer hotspots (HH). LULC analysis showed that urban expansion during 2009–2024 was significant, with built-up land increasing at the expense of agriculture and vegetation, and by 2024, built-up areas predominated, indicating a structural transformation. Four simulation scenarios were examined and the combination of all the scenarios resulted in the least UHI intensity. Lastly, a five-category composite urban vulnerability index (CUVI) was developed using weighted linear aggregation of normalized indices. The practical implication of this research extends to targeted initiatives and policy interventions.