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<p>Urban morphology modifies local microclimates through its influence on radiation exchange, airflow, and shading. While morphological effects on outdoor thermal comfort are well established, the relative sensitivity of pedestrian-level thermal stress to geometric urban form compared to dominant atmospheric forcing under extreme hot–humid conditions remain insufficiently quantified. This study develops a controlled morphological sensitivity framework to assess the relative sensitivity of building layout, morphology, street shading and orientation on outdoor thermal comfort in Kish Island, Iran. Using validated ENVI-met simulations calibrated against field measurements, 1,512 parametric scenarios were generated for the summer solstice (21 June), selected as the day of maximum solar loading under controlled boundary conditions. The Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) was used to evaluate pedestrian-level thermal stress. Machine learning models were trained to generalise the simulation outputs, and SHAP-based interpretability analysis was applied to quantify the marginal contribution of climatic and morphological variables at three representative times of day. Results reveal a clear variable importance hierarchy. Wind speed and mean radiant temperature (MRT) dominate PET variability in the SHAP decomposition, while morphological parameters exert consistent but secondary effects primarily through shading and airflow modulation. Time-resolved analysis demonstrates that the influence of urban form varies diurnally and remains constrained under high humidity and intense solar loading. Even under optimised configurations, PET values did not reach comfort thresholds, indicating limited sensitivity of thermal comfort to morphological variation alone under extreme hot–humid conditions. Rather than focusing solely on predictive accuracy, this study uses SHAP to decompose PET model outputs and quantify the relative sensitivity of predicted thermal comfort to climatic and morphological inputs, highlighting the secondary role of morphology under severe atmospheric forcing. All scenarios were conducted under fixed vegetation and surface material conditions; the influence of vegetation integration and albedo modification was outside the scope of the present parametric framework. The framework provides a transferable approach for evaluating climate-adaptive design strategies in rapidly urbanising hot–humid regions.</p>

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Urban morphology and outdoor thermal comfort in extreme hot–humid climates: a SHAP-based sensitivity analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Alireza Nazeri,
  • Samaneh Jalali,
  • Morteza Khorsandnikoo,
  • Aimee Byrne,
  • Omprakash Ramalingam Rethnam,
  • Ciara Ahern

摘要

Urban morphology modifies local microclimates through its influence on radiation exchange, airflow, and shading. While morphological effects on outdoor thermal comfort are well established, the relative sensitivity of pedestrian-level thermal stress to geometric urban form compared to dominant atmospheric forcing under extreme hot–humid conditions remain insufficiently quantified. This study develops a controlled morphological sensitivity framework to assess the relative sensitivity of building layout, morphology, street shading and orientation on outdoor thermal comfort in Kish Island, Iran. Using validated ENVI-met simulations calibrated against field measurements, 1,512 parametric scenarios were generated for the summer solstice (21 June), selected as the day of maximum solar loading under controlled boundary conditions. The Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) was used to evaluate pedestrian-level thermal stress. Machine learning models were trained to generalise the simulation outputs, and SHAP-based interpretability analysis was applied to quantify the marginal contribution of climatic and morphological variables at three representative times of day. Results reveal a clear variable importance hierarchy. Wind speed and mean radiant temperature (MRT) dominate PET variability in the SHAP decomposition, while morphological parameters exert consistent but secondary effects primarily through shading and airflow modulation. Time-resolved analysis demonstrates that the influence of urban form varies diurnally and remains constrained under high humidity and intense solar loading. Even under optimised configurations, PET values did not reach comfort thresholds, indicating limited sensitivity of thermal comfort to morphological variation alone under extreme hot–humid conditions. Rather than focusing solely on predictive accuracy, this study uses SHAP to decompose PET model outputs and quantify the relative sensitivity of predicted thermal comfort to climatic and morphological inputs, highlighting the secondary role of morphology under severe atmospheric forcing. All scenarios were conducted under fixed vegetation and surface material conditions; the influence of vegetation integration and albedo modification was outside the scope of the present parametric framework. The framework provides a transferable approach for evaluating climate-adaptive design strategies in rapidly urbanising hot–humid regions.