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<p>This study analyzes the historical and future projections of variability in the zonal shift and intensity of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 group of models. Compared to reanalysis data, the variability in eddy geopotential height at 1000&#xa0;hPa over the historical period is well captured by eight selected CMIP6 models. The AWI-CM1, BCC_CSM2, and IITM_ESM models accurately simulate the climatological location and intensity of the WPSH around 20°N during the historical period (1950–2014). Most models also simulate the pattern of interannual variability in the zonal displacement of the WPSH during the peak monsoon season effectively. Rainfall over the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) region during the July-August period is well estimated by AWI-CM1 and AWI_ESM, though the other models slightly overestimate it. The spatial correlation between the WPSH and rainfall over the ISM region is well represented by all selected models. The association between the ISMR and WPSH during the historical period is accurately captured in the AWI-CM1, AWI_ESM and IITM_ESM models. The selected models are simualting and projecting the consistence relation between westward shift and intensification of WPSH over the historical period and by end of the century. The AWI_CM1, BCC_CSM2, MPI_ESM, and IITM_ESM models projecting that WPSH shifts westward and intensification of WPSH in future. There is a strong association between WPSH and ISMR as negative (positive) correlation which means that westward (eastward) shift of WPSH and favour (unfavour) to ISMR in future. A significant relationship exists between the WPSH and ISMR, wherein a westward (eastward) displacement of the WPSH is associated with enhanced (suppressed) rainfall, particularly over central and western India. This study highlights the linkage between WPSH variability and its association with ISMR based on historical analysis and future projections, indicating that regional rainfall variability over the ISM domain is strongly modulated by the zonal displacement of the WPSH.</p>

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Assessing the variability and relationship of West Pacific subtropical high and Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on CMIP6 models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Roja Chaluvadi,
  • Hamza Varikoden,
  • Milind Mujumdar,
  • S. T. Ingle

摘要

This study analyzes the historical and future projections of variability in the zonal shift and intensity of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 group of models. Compared to reanalysis data, the variability in eddy geopotential height at 1000 hPa over the historical period is well captured by eight selected CMIP6 models. The AWI-CM1, BCC_CSM2, and IITM_ESM models accurately simulate the climatological location and intensity of the WPSH around 20°N during the historical period (1950–2014). Most models also simulate the pattern of interannual variability in the zonal displacement of the WPSH during the peak monsoon season effectively. Rainfall over the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) region during the July-August period is well estimated by AWI-CM1 and AWI_ESM, though the other models slightly overestimate it. The spatial correlation between the WPSH and rainfall over the ISM region is well represented by all selected models. The association between the ISMR and WPSH during the historical period is accurately captured in the AWI-CM1, AWI_ESM and IITM_ESM models. The selected models are simualting and projecting the consistence relation between westward shift and intensification of WPSH over the historical period and by end of the century. The AWI_CM1, BCC_CSM2, MPI_ESM, and IITM_ESM models projecting that WPSH shifts westward and intensification of WPSH in future. There is a strong association between WPSH and ISMR as negative (positive) correlation which means that westward (eastward) shift of WPSH and favour (unfavour) to ISMR in future. A significant relationship exists between the WPSH and ISMR, wherein a westward (eastward) displacement of the WPSH is associated with enhanced (suppressed) rainfall, particularly over central and western India. This study highlights the linkage between WPSH variability and its association with ISMR based on historical analysis and future projections, indicating that regional rainfall variability over the ISM domain is strongly modulated by the zonal displacement of the WPSH.