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<p>This article presents a comprehensive analysis of current and projected climate changes in the Republic of Djibouti based on ERA5 reanalysis data (1961–2020), CHIRPS satellite precipitation estimates (1981–2024), and the CMIP6 climate model ensemble. The results indicate statistically significant warming at an average rate of 0.1–0.25&#xa0;°C per decade, with the highest rates observed in western regions. An increase in extreme temperature indicators was identified: rise in absolute maximums up to 44&#xa0;°C, increase in the number of tropical nights (TR) up to 365 days per year, and reduction in cold periods. Precipitation analysis shows an overall increase (up to 30&#xa0;mm per decade) with a pronounced seasonal redistribution – decrease during the dry season (JF) and increase during the summer period (JJAS). An NDVI analysis in Djibouti for 2000–2024 showed that, against a background of predominantly desert landscapes (index values of 0.1–0.2), a positive vegetation trend covers 42% of the territory, including 27% with statistically significant growth. Projections for the 21st century predict additional warming of 3–5&#xa0;°C by 2100 and a 20–80% increase in precipitation. The obtained results underscore the necessity of developing differentiated adaptation strategies that account for the significant spatial heterogeneity of climate changes across the Republic of Djibouti.</p>

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Regional features of climate change and vegetation dynamics in the republic of djibouti: from observed trends to future scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Elena V. Vyshkvarkova,
  • Ekaterina S. Kashirina,
  • Nastasia P. Lineva,
  • Roman V. Gorbunov

摘要

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of current and projected climate changes in the Republic of Djibouti based on ERA5 reanalysis data (1961–2020), CHIRPS satellite precipitation estimates (1981–2024), and the CMIP6 climate model ensemble. The results indicate statistically significant warming at an average rate of 0.1–0.25 °C per decade, with the highest rates observed in western regions. An increase in extreme temperature indicators was identified: rise in absolute maximums up to 44 °C, increase in the number of tropical nights (TR) up to 365 days per year, and reduction in cold periods. Precipitation analysis shows an overall increase (up to 30 mm per decade) with a pronounced seasonal redistribution – decrease during the dry season (JF) and increase during the summer period (JJAS). An NDVI analysis in Djibouti for 2000–2024 showed that, against a background of predominantly desert landscapes (index values of 0.1–0.2), a positive vegetation trend covers 42% of the territory, including 27% with statistically significant growth. Projections for the 21st century predict additional warming of 3–5 °C by 2100 and a 20–80% increase in precipitation. The obtained results underscore the necessity of developing differentiated adaptation strategies that account for the significant spatial heterogeneity of climate changes across the Republic of Djibouti.