<p>Declining extreme wind hazard does not necessarily imply reduced population exposure under continuing demographic redistribution. Using CN05.1 daily near-surface wind speed and gridded population data, this study identified EW95 and EW99 extreme wind days across China during 1983-2022 and assessed changes in frequency, intensity, population exposure, and exposure concentration. Results show that extreme wind frequency declined significantly nationwide, with decreases of −1.15 d decade<sup>−1</sup> for EW95 and −0.47 d decade<sup>−1</sup> for EW99. Extreme wind intensity also weakened overall, especially under EW95. Population exposure did not decrease proportionally with the weakening of extreme wind hazards. National total exposure declined from 1983 to 1992 to 2003-2012 but rebounded during 2013-2022, mainly due to renewed positive frequency contributions. Provincial exposure changes became increasingly heterogeneous after 2003-2012, with localized hotspot intensification emerging in parts of central, southern, and southeastern China. These findings indicate that declining extreme wind frequency and intensity can coexist with persistent or locally increasing population exposure, highlighting the importance of incorporating dynamic exposure patterns into extreme-wind adaptation and preparedness planning.</p>

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Intensified spatial concentration of population exposure under declining extreme wind hazards in China

  • Chenyu Wang,
  • Shanshan Wen,
  • Litong Zhao,
  • Biao Zhou

摘要

Declining extreme wind hazard does not necessarily imply reduced population exposure under continuing demographic redistribution. Using CN05.1 daily near-surface wind speed and gridded population data, this study identified EW95 and EW99 extreme wind days across China during 1983-2022 and assessed changes in frequency, intensity, population exposure, and exposure concentration. Results show that extreme wind frequency declined significantly nationwide, with decreases of −1.15 d decade−1 for EW95 and −0.47 d decade−1 for EW99. Extreme wind intensity also weakened overall, especially under EW95. Population exposure did not decrease proportionally with the weakening of extreme wind hazards. National total exposure declined from 1983 to 1992 to 2003-2012 but rebounded during 2013-2022, mainly due to renewed positive frequency contributions. Provincial exposure changes became increasingly heterogeneous after 2003-2012, with localized hotspot intensification emerging in parts of central, southern, and southeastern China. These findings indicate that declining extreme wind frequency and intensity can coexist with persistent or locally increasing population exposure, highlighting the importance of incorporating dynamic exposure patterns into extreme-wind adaptation and preparedness planning.