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<p>Drought is a prolonged dry period which is the natural phenomenon that has always happened in the past few years. It has a bad effects on water resources, people’s livelihoods, and farming. It is very important to know the spatial variation of drought to manage water resources well. Kelantan River Basin is experiencing high drought occurrences. Therefore, the primary goal of this study is to use two drought indices, namely the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) to investigate the drought conditions. The drought frequency for the period 2004 to 2024 was analyzed. Subsequently, the performance of SPI and EDI were evaluated by using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The spatial analysis of the best drought index was performed by using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. It was indicated that Kelantan River Basin experienced high drought frequency. The result showed that the EDI was the best drought index, as it includes more detailed weather data. The spatial trends revealed that the drought event spread more across the whole basin as the timescales increased from 1 to 3,6,9 and 12 months. Overall, Kelantan River Basin is exposed to the risk of long periods of low rainfall and drought conditions, with recurrence values ranging from 0.553 to 0.596 across all stations. Topographical features, monsoon variability, and land use changes were identified as factors influencing drought severity. This study provides an important foundation to enhance societal preparedness for drought disasters.</p>

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Drought frequency and spatial variability in the Kelantan River Basin: comparative evaluation of SPI and EDI

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Muhamad Hazim Solahudin,
  • Jing Lin Ng,
  • Yuk Feng Huang,
  • Swee Pin Yeap,
  • Ali Najah Ahmed,
  • Majid Mirzaei,
  • Fatemehsadat Mortazavizadeh,
  • Zi Qing Lee

摘要

Drought is a prolonged dry period which is the natural phenomenon that has always happened in the past few years. It has a bad effects on water resources, people’s livelihoods, and farming. It is very important to know the spatial variation of drought to manage water resources well. Kelantan River Basin is experiencing high drought occurrences. Therefore, the primary goal of this study is to use two drought indices, namely the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) to investigate the drought conditions. The drought frequency for the period 2004 to 2024 was analyzed. Subsequently, the performance of SPI and EDI were evaluated by using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The spatial analysis of the best drought index was performed by using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. It was indicated that Kelantan River Basin experienced high drought frequency. The result showed that the EDI was the best drought index, as it includes more detailed weather data. The spatial trends revealed that the drought event spread more across the whole basin as the timescales increased from 1 to 3,6,9 and 12 months. Overall, Kelantan River Basin is exposed to the risk of long periods of low rainfall and drought conditions, with recurrence values ranging from 0.553 to 0.596 across all stations. Topographical features, monsoon variability, and land use changes were identified as factors influencing drought severity. This study provides an important foundation to enhance societal preparedness for drought disasters.