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<p>This study reassesses the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) influences on Türkiye’s regional temperature and precipitation during 1950–2024 using a harmonised workflow built directly from ERA5-Land monthly anomalies aggregated across seven geographical regions. Twenty-year moving-window correlations were rebuilt from seasonally matched anomaly and index series using a corrected DJF bookkeeping convention, and all downstream diagnostics were re-evaluated under a dependence-aware inference. The rebuilt Mann-Kendall analysis indicated 19 nominally significant trends (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) across 112 region-season-variable-index combinations, but only five remained significant after full-family Benjamini-Hochberg correction and 12 remained significant under season-specific empirical effective-test thresholds. Classical Pettitt testing identified 11 candidate changepoints, yet only one remained significant after AR(1)-Monte Carlo reassessment. The null-based evaluation of time-varying coefficient trajectories supports evolving teleconnection sensitivity in only 6 of 112 combinations. Late-record upticks are also shown to be limited, with only six combinations displaying simultaneous raw rebound and positive tail-slope evidence under an AR(1) null. Wavelet behaviour and circulation composites continue to provide physically suggestive context, but these components are interpreted conservatively: regional lag-1 persistence is not spatially uniform, and composite significance is strongest in NAO+ Z500 and TCWV fields, whereas grid cell significance does not survive BH-FDR correction. The clearest supported subsets are concentrated in DJF and, to a lesser extent, JJA and MAM. Overall, the remaining evidence supports selective, regionally heterogeneous, scale-dependent and method-sensitive non-stationarity, rather than a uniform nationwide weakening or a single breakpoint-centred regime shift.</p>

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The non-stationary nature of Türkiye’s climate response to teleconnection patterns: A 75-year evolutionary analysis of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (1950–2024)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Ferhat Keserci

摘要

This study reassesses the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) influences on Türkiye’s regional temperature and precipitation during 1950–2024 using a harmonised workflow built directly from ERA5-Land monthly anomalies aggregated across seven geographical regions. Twenty-year moving-window correlations were rebuilt from seasonally matched anomaly and index series using a corrected DJF bookkeeping convention, and all downstream diagnostics were re-evaluated under a dependence-aware inference. The rebuilt Mann-Kendall analysis indicated 19 nominally significant trends (p < 0.05) across 112 region-season-variable-index combinations, but only five remained significant after full-family Benjamini-Hochberg correction and 12 remained significant under season-specific empirical effective-test thresholds. Classical Pettitt testing identified 11 candidate changepoints, yet only one remained significant after AR(1)-Monte Carlo reassessment. The null-based evaluation of time-varying coefficient trajectories supports evolving teleconnection sensitivity in only 6 of 112 combinations. Late-record upticks are also shown to be limited, with only six combinations displaying simultaneous raw rebound and positive tail-slope evidence under an AR(1) null. Wavelet behaviour and circulation composites continue to provide physically suggestive context, but these components are interpreted conservatively: regional lag-1 persistence is not spatially uniform, and composite significance is strongest in NAO+ Z500 and TCWV fields, whereas grid cell significance does not survive BH-FDR correction. The clearest supported subsets are concentrated in DJF and, to a lesser extent, JJA and MAM. Overall, the remaining evidence supports selective, regionally heterogeneous, scale-dependent and method-sensitive non-stationarity, rather than a uniform nationwide weakening or a single breakpoint-centred regime shift.