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<p>The temperature simulation cold bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) affects the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) projections. To mitigate the impact of systemic errors in CMIP6 GCMs on future TP temperature projections, we employ an observationally constrained (OC) projection method. Additionally, we analyze the correlations between TP temperature changes and global warming across four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, considering the entire 21st century and different subperiods. The OC projection approach notably reduces the differences among individual CMIP6 GCMs, suggesting the anomalous GCM effect is corrected. In the OC projections, the future TP temperatures are warmer than those in the original CMIP6 projection, consistent with the known CMIP6 cold bias, which is especially evident in the western TP. Notably, the warming in the northwestern and northern TP is lower in the OC results than in the original projections due to the temperature error correction by the Kunlun Mountain topography. During 2015–2100, TP and global temperature trends are highly consistent. The TP/Global warming ratio increases with forcing strength, ranging from 0.83 to 1.03 under SSP1-2.6 to 1.03–1.46 under SSP5-8.5. Under low‑to‑medium SSPs, TP warming is close to or slightly below the global average in certain seasons, whereas under medium‑to‑high SSPs, it substantially exceeds the global rate, especially in JJA, SON, and DJF. TP warming consistently surpasses global warming in the mid‑term, long‑term, and near‑term under SSP5-8.5, with the strongest amplification in DJF and SON under high‑forcing scenarios.</p>

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Observationally constrained projections over the Tibetan Plateau and their connection to global warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Qin Hu,
  • Wei Hua,
  • Jing Ming

摘要

The temperature simulation cold bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) affects the accuracy of general circulation models (GCMs) projections. To mitigate the impact of systemic errors in CMIP6 GCMs on future TP temperature projections, we employ an observationally constrained (OC) projection method. Additionally, we analyze the correlations between TP temperature changes and global warming across four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, considering the entire 21st century and different subperiods. The OC projection approach notably reduces the differences among individual CMIP6 GCMs, suggesting the anomalous GCM effect is corrected. In the OC projections, the future TP temperatures are warmer than those in the original CMIP6 projection, consistent with the known CMIP6 cold bias, which is especially evident in the western TP. Notably, the warming in the northwestern and northern TP is lower in the OC results than in the original projections due to the temperature error correction by the Kunlun Mountain topography. During 2015–2100, TP and global temperature trends are highly consistent. The TP/Global warming ratio increases with forcing strength, ranging from 0.83 to 1.03 under SSP1-2.6 to 1.03–1.46 under SSP5-8.5. Under low‑to‑medium SSPs, TP warming is close to or slightly below the global average in certain seasons, whereas under medium‑to‑high SSPs, it substantially exceeds the global rate, especially in JJA, SON, and DJF. TP warming consistently surpasses global warming in the mid‑term, long‑term, and near‑term under SSP5-8.5, with the strongest amplification in DJF and SON under high‑forcing scenarios.