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<p>This paper analyzes observed and projected trends in climate variability and change, and their impacts on crop yields in the semi-arid districts of Same and Mwanga in northern Tanzania. The study utilized historical rainfall and temperature data obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) database. Rainfall and temperature trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test in RStudio, while crop yields were standardized using Z-scores. Results indicated that annual rainfall has remained relatively stable over the 43-year period, with slight increasing trends that are not statistically significant in both Same (MK = 0.06, p = 0.52) and Mwanga (MK = 0.17, p = 0.61) districts. On a monthly basis, the results revealed statistically significant increasing trends in February rainfall in Mwanga (MK = 0.29, p = 0.006) and March rainfall in Same (MK = 0.26, p = 0.01), suggesting changes in the intensity and timing of early rains. Moreover, the findings revealed significant decreasing trend in May rainfall in Same, suggesting shortening of the long-rain season. Contrarywise, the results indicate a non-significant increasing trend in the short-rain season in both Same (MK = 0.05, p = 0.62) and Mwanga (MK = 0.18, p = 0.08) districts. Analysis of temperature records indicated stronger warming trends in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures, suggesting reduced nocturnal cooling, a pattern that reinforces evidence of ongoing climate change in the study areas. Projected changes under the RCP 8.5 scenario suggest further increases in both rainfall and temperature in the near future (2022 to 2042) and mid-century (2043 to 2062) periods. The results further indicated that years characterized by increased temperatures and drought conditions generally coincided with declines in crop yields, while near-normal temperature and rainfall conditions were associated with improved yields in both districts. These findings underscore the need for robust adaptation strategies to reduce climate-related vulnerabilities in Tanzania’s semi-arid regions. Recommended measures include improving irrigation infrastructure, promoting drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, enhancing access to credit and insurance, and supporting crop diversification and altered planting schedules. Strengthening the adaptive capacity of households through improved access to social, natural, financial, and human capital is also crucial, especially in areas with limited government support.</p>

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Analysis of observed and projected climate trends and their implications on crop yields in semi-arid communities of Tanzania

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Bahati Ally Magesa

摘要

This paper analyzes observed and projected trends in climate variability and change, and their impacts on crop yields in the semi-arid districts of Same and Mwanga in northern Tanzania. The study utilized historical rainfall and temperature data obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) database. Rainfall and temperature trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test in RStudio, while crop yields were standardized using Z-scores. Results indicated that annual rainfall has remained relatively stable over the 43-year period, with slight increasing trends that are not statistically significant in both Same (MK = 0.06, p = 0.52) and Mwanga (MK = 0.17, p = 0.61) districts. On a monthly basis, the results revealed statistically significant increasing trends in February rainfall in Mwanga (MK = 0.29, p = 0.006) and March rainfall in Same (MK = 0.26, p = 0.01), suggesting changes in the intensity and timing of early rains. Moreover, the findings revealed significant decreasing trend in May rainfall in Same, suggesting shortening of the long-rain season. Contrarywise, the results indicate a non-significant increasing trend in the short-rain season in both Same (MK = 0.05, p = 0.62) and Mwanga (MK = 0.18, p = 0.08) districts. Analysis of temperature records indicated stronger warming trends in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures, suggesting reduced nocturnal cooling, a pattern that reinforces evidence of ongoing climate change in the study areas. Projected changes under the RCP 8.5 scenario suggest further increases in both rainfall and temperature in the near future (2022 to 2042) and mid-century (2043 to 2062) periods. The results further indicated that years characterized by increased temperatures and drought conditions generally coincided with declines in crop yields, while near-normal temperature and rainfall conditions were associated with improved yields in both districts. These findings underscore the need for robust adaptation strategies to reduce climate-related vulnerabilities in Tanzania’s semi-arid regions. Recommended measures include improving irrigation infrastructure, promoting drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop varieties, enhancing access to credit and insurance, and supporting crop diversification and altered planting schedules. Strengthening the adaptive capacity of households through improved access to social, natural, financial, and human capital is also crucial, especially in areas with limited government support.