Climate impacts and public support for government action in Africa

Climate governance in resource-constrained contexts depends not only on technical capacity but also on public authorization for state intervention. In many African countries, climate impacts directly affect livelihoods, water availability, and local economies, raising the question of whether lived climate experience translates into political support for government action. Using harmonized Afrobarometer survey data from fourteen countries across East, West, and Southern Africa (N = 21,520; analytic sample up to 10,970), this study examines the relationship between perceived local climate impacts and support for immediate government intervention and evaluates whether this association is conditioned by institutional trust or socioeconomic vulnerability. Weighted logistic regression models with country fixed effects reveal a consistent positive within-country association: a one standard deviation increase in perceived climate impacts is associated with an approximately six-percentage-point increase in the probability of supporting government action. Contrary to institutionalist and distributive expectations, this relationship does not vary systematically across levels of governance trust and is not significantly attenuated among economically vulnerable respondents. Component-level analysis indicates that livelihood impacts and environmental attribution are more strongly associated with policy support than reported exposure to droughts or floods alone. The findings suggest that perceived climate impacts function as a broad-based driver of public support for state intervention, even in heterogeneous and capacity-constrained governance settings. For policymakers, the results highlight the importance of translating exposure-driven public demand into credible, equitable, and effective climate responses.