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<p>Banana cultivation is a key component of food security and rural income on Ngazidja Island (Grande Comore, Comoros), yet its productivity is strongly influenced by climatic variability. This study quantifies the effects of temperature and humidity variations on banana yield during 1991–2022 using multiple linear regression (MLR) and correlation analyses. Climatic parameters including Earth Skin Temperature (EST; °C), Wet-Bulb Temperature (WBT; °C), Annual Rainfall (AR; mm year⁻¹), Specific Humidity (SH; g kg⁻¹), and Relative Humidity (RH; %) were obtained from the National Agency for Civil Aviation and Meteorology of Comoros (ANACEM) and NASA POWER datasets, while banana yield records were obtained from the National Institute for Research in Agriculture and Fisheries (INRAPE). Results show that EST and WBT exhibit strong positive correlations with the Climate-Induced Yield Index (CIYI) (<i>r</i> = 0.63 and 0.65, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), indicating that inter-annual banana yield variability is closely associated with temperature-related factors. The regression model performed well (R² = 0.78; RMSE = 0.42 t ha⁻¹), confirming the dominant role of thermal variables in explaining banana yield fluctuations across the study period. These results provide a basis for developing temperature-informed adaptation strategies to sustain banana productivity under future climate variability.</p>

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Evaluating the effects of climate variability on banana yields in Ngazidja Island, Comoros using statistical modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Andlia Abdoussalami,
  • Dinesh Madhushanka,
  • Xuesong Zhang,
  • Qi Li,
  • Zhenghua Hu,
  • Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam

摘要

Banana cultivation is a key component of food security and rural income on Ngazidja Island (Grande Comore, Comoros), yet its productivity is strongly influenced by climatic variability. This study quantifies the effects of temperature and humidity variations on banana yield during 1991–2022 using multiple linear regression (MLR) and correlation analyses. Climatic parameters including Earth Skin Temperature (EST; °C), Wet-Bulb Temperature (WBT; °C), Annual Rainfall (AR; mm year⁻¹), Specific Humidity (SH; g kg⁻¹), and Relative Humidity (RH; %) were obtained from the National Agency for Civil Aviation and Meteorology of Comoros (ANACEM) and NASA POWER datasets, while banana yield records were obtained from the National Institute for Research in Agriculture and Fisheries (INRAPE). Results show that EST and WBT exhibit strong positive correlations with the Climate-Induced Yield Index (CIYI) (r = 0.63 and 0.65, p < 0.05), indicating that inter-annual banana yield variability is closely associated with temperature-related factors. The regression model performed well (R² = 0.78; RMSE = 0.42 t ha⁻¹), confirming the dominant role of thermal variables in explaining banana yield fluctuations across the study period. These results provide a basis for developing temperature-informed adaptation strategies to sustain banana productivity under future climate variability.