Elevation-dependent warming in the Western Himalayas: A 124-year gridded temperature analysis

The Western Himalayas (WH), a critical cryospheric and ecological zone, are highly vulnerable to climate change. It is essential to comprehend the climatic trend within the limited ground-based observation area. This study presents a comprehensive 124-year elevation-based analysis of temperature trends (1901–2024) using CRU TS v4.09 gridded data across three altitudinal zones: W2000 (0–2000 m), W4000 (2001–4000 m), and W6000 (> 4000 m). The monthly and seasonal climatology analysis shows a sharp thermal gradient with elevation. Warm-season duration decreases with elevation, culminating in persistently sub-zero conditions at high altitudes. The trend analysis confirms elevation-dependent warming (EDW), with winter emerging as the most climate-sensitive season. The cumulative TMN increase during December, January and February (DJF) over 124 years ranges from approximately 1.49 °C at W2000 to 1.61–1.86 °C at W4000, peaking at 1.96–2.40 °C at W6000, nearly twice the warming accumulated at lower elevations. Independent validation against ERA5-Land reanalysis (1950–2024) confirms the EDW signal, with r² = 0.906–0.988 and 80.6% agreement in trend direction across all basins–elevation combinations, establishing the robustness of the findings. These findings establish EDW as a defining climate-change signature, with profound implications for glacier mass balance, hydrological regimes, biodiversity, and downstream water security. Aligning with SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), and SDG 15 (Life on Land), this elevation-based research provides a scientific foundation for targeted adaptation strategies in high-mountain environments.