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<p>Seasonal flooding in Bangladesh is strongly influenced by large-scale climate drivers, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study investigates the impact of various ENSO phases and types, in conjunction with IOD and MJO variability, on flood frequency and severity. Our results show that major floods typically occur on an interannual timescale (2 to7 years), with extreme events exhibiting longer return periods. Eastern Pacific La Niña (EPL) events are associated with widespread flooding, while Central Pacific La Niña (CPL) tends to produce more localized impacts. In contrast, strong Eastern Pacific El Niño (EPE) events generally reduce flood occurrence. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind anomalies support these findings, and regression models using the flood-affected area (FAA) and dominant SST modes explain 75% of the variance (F = 22.19, p &lt; 0.001). Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WCA) further links SST anomalies in Niño regions 3, 3.4, and 4 to major Bangladesh floods in the late 1980s, mid-1990s to 2000s, and post-2014. These results underscore the value of integrating real-time SST, IOD, and MJO monitoring into early warning systems to enhance understanding of flood variability and support disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh.</p>

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Tropical climate drivers (ENSO, IOD, and MJO) and seasonal flood variability in Bangladesh

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Md Rashed Chowdhury,
  • Adiba Mosharraf,
  • Md. Ashraful Islam,
  • Shamoeta Zaman,
  • Md. Abdulla Hel Kafi,
  • Md. Sohel Masud,
  • SM Mahbubur Rahman

摘要

Seasonal flooding in Bangladesh is strongly influenced by large-scale climate drivers, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This study investigates the impact of various ENSO phases and types, in conjunction with IOD and MJO variability, on flood frequency and severity. Our results show that major floods typically occur on an interannual timescale (2 to7 years), with extreme events exhibiting longer return periods. Eastern Pacific La Niña (EPL) events are associated with widespread flooding, while Central Pacific La Niña (CPL) tends to produce more localized impacts. In contrast, strong Eastern Pacific El Niño (EPE) events generally reduce flood occurrence. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind anomalies support these findings, and regression models using the flood-affected area (FAA) and dominant SST modes explain 75% of the variance (F = 22.19, p < 0.001). Wavelet Coherence Analysis (WCA) further links SST anomalies in Niño regions 3, 3.4, and 4 to major Bangladesh floods in the late 1980s, mid-1990s to 2000s, and post-2014. These results underscore the value of integrating real-time SST, IOD, and MJO monitoring into early warning systems to enhance understanding of flood variability and support disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh.