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<p>In this study, summer monsoon rainfall trends and change points in seven states of Northeast India have been assessed based on rainfall data from 65 stations during 1901–2002. The trends of non-normally serially correlated monsoon rainfall time series have been analysed using four modified versions of the Mann-Kendall trend test: Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK-1 and MMK-2) using a variance correction approach, Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (PWMK) and Trend Free Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPWMK). The Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, Buishand Range test and Standard Normal Homogeneity test have been employed to detect change points in the monsoon rainfall time series. During 1901–2002, monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend at 55 stations, among them, only 10 stations in Arunachal Pradesh (four), Assam (four) and Nagaland (two) portrayed a significant trend confirmed by all four test results at a 95% confidence level. In the meantime, the MMK-2 test identified a significant increasing trend at only two stations in Arunachal Pradesh and four stations in Assam. Change point analysis identified the most probable change point years as 1955 for Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, 1956 for Meghalaya, 1966 for Nagaland, and 1969 for Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. During the period before the change point, the entire Northeast India experienced an increasing trend in monsoon rainfall. After the change point period, 40 rainfall stations showed an increasing trend, followed by a decreasing trend at 25 stations. The MMK-2 test proved most satisfactory for assessing significant monsoon rainfall trends, followed by the MMK-1 and TFPWMK tests.</p>

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Long-term summer monsoon rainfall trends and shift changes in the states of Northeast India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Suman Kumar Kundu,
  • Ananya Chakraborty,
  • Tarun Kumar Mondal

摘要

In this study, summer monsoon rainfall trends and change points in seven states of Northeast India have been assessed based on rainfall data from 65 stations during 1901–2002. The trends of non-normally serially correlated monsoon rainfall time series have been analysed using four modified versions of the Mann-Kendall trend test: Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK-1 and MMK-2) using a variance correction approach, Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (PWMK) and Trend Free Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPWMK). The Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, Buishand Range test and Standard Normal Homogeneity test have been employed to detect change points in the monsoon rainfall time series. During 1901–2002, monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend at 55 stations, among them, only 10 stations in Arunachal Pradesh (four), Assam (four) and Nagaland (two) portrayed a significant trend confirmed by all four test results at a 95% confidence level. In the meantime, the MMK-2 test identified a significant increasing trend at only two stations in Arunachal Pradesh and four stations in Assam. Change point analysis identified the most probable change point years as 1955 for Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, 1956 for Meghalaya, 1966 for Nagaland, and 1969 for Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. During the period before the change point, the entire Northeast India experienced an increasing trend in monsoon rainfall. After the change point period, 40 rainfall stations showed an increasing trend, followed by a decreasing trend at 25 stations. The MMK-2 test proved most satisfactory for assessing significant monsoon rainfall trends, followed by the MMK-1 and TFPWMK tests.