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<p>Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by both quantity and quality degradation, particularly due to arsenic contamination. This study aims to examine how water table depletion, driven by climate change and lithostratigraphic composition, impacts arsenic mobilization in the western Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (Bengal Delta). Results reveal elevated arsenic concentrations (up to ~ 0.27&#xa0;mg L⁻¹) primarily within recent alluvial deposits in the eastern sector of the study area. The semi-arid western Bengal Delta has undergone a dramatic water table decline of nearly 30&#xa0;m since 1996. Among several models tested, random forest (RF) provided the best fit model for predicting water table dynamics, with a minimum root-mean-square error of 0.53. However, there is spatial (district-wise) variation regarding the most reliable models. Groundwater over-extraction, driven by rapid population growth, emerges as the dominant factor in depletion, further aggravated by declining precipitation linked to climate change. These findings underscore the coupled influence of hydrogeological and climatic factors on arsenic enrichment, which emphasizes the necessity of integrated management strategies to restore water table and mitigate contamination across the Bengal Delta.</p>

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Modelling extraction-induced water table decline and potential relationship with arsenic mobilization in the Western Bengal Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Sadik Mahammad,
  • Aznarul Islam,
  • Balai Chandra Das,
  • Biplab Sarkar,
  • Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam,
  • Subodh Chandra Pal

摘要

Groundwater resources are increasingly threatened by both quantity and quality degradation, particularly due to arsenic contamination. This study aims to examine how water table depletion, driven by climate change and lithostratigraphic composition, impacts arsenic mobilization in the western Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (Bengal Delta). Results reveal elevated arsenic concentrations (up to ~ 0.27 mg L⁻¹) primarily within recent alluvial deposits in the eastern sector of the study area. The semi-arid western Bengal Delta has undergone a dramatic water table decline of nearly 30 m since 1996. Among several models tested, random forest (RF) provided the best fit model for predicting water table dynamics, with a minimum root-mean-square error of 0.53. However, there is spatial (district-wise) variation regarding the most reliable models. Groundwater over-extraction, driven by rapid population growth, emerges as the dominant factor in depletion, further aggravated by declining precipitation linked to climate change. These findings underscore the coupled influence of hydrogeological and climatic factors on arsenic enrichment, which emphasizes the necessity of integrated management strategies to restore water table and mitigate contamination across the Bengal Delta.