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<p>Understanding the non-stationary behavior and temporal dependence properties of rainfall characteristics, along with their associations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is crucial for the planning and management of agriculture and water resources sectors in Thailand. The study employed the Mann–Kendall test and the Mann–Whitney–Pettitt test to identify monotonic trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall characteristics in Thailand during 1951–2023, respectively. Short-term and long-term persistence were quantified using the autocorrelation coefficient and the Hurst exponent (H), respectively, while correlation analysis examined the association between rainfall characteristics and ENSO/IOD. Results indicated that a small proportion of meteorological rainfall observations exhibit significant trends, shifts, and short-term persistence. However, significant long-term persistence is more prevalent, particularly for indices describing moderate-intensity rainfall and wet-day frequency. Further, ENSO exhibits significant associations with both seasonal and extreme rainfall, with the strength and spatial extent of these associations varying across timescales, regions, and rainfall indicators. The warm phase of ENSO is generally associated with reduced rainfall, fewer rainy days, shorter wet spells, and longer dry spells, while the cold phase exhibits the opposite pattern. The linkage between IOD and rainfall characteristics is generally weak, inconsistent, and confined to specific regions and indices, yet still crucial at sensitive locations across Thailand. Moreover, the scattered nature of significant trends, shifts, and persistence in a few stations for seasonal and extreme rainfall indicates the existence of substantial unresolved spatial heterogeneity in Thailand.</p>

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Non-stationarity and temporal dependence of seasonal and extreme rainfall in Thailand and their linkages with ENSO and IOD

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Mallappa Jadiyappa Madolli,
  • Shubham Anil Gade,
  • Natthachet Tangdamrongsub,
  • Subhankar Debnath,
  • Vivek Gupta,
  • Avishek Datta,
  • Sushil Kumar Himanshu

摘要

Understanding the non-stationary behavior and temporal dependence properties of rainfall characteristics, along with their associations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is crucial for the planning and management of agriculture and water resources sectors in Thailand. The study employed the Mann–Kendall test and the Mann–Whitney–Pettitt test to identify monotonic trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall characteristics in Thailand during 1951–2023, respectively. Short-term and long-term persistence were quantified using the autocorrelation coefficient and the Hurst exponent (H), respectively, while correlation analysis examined the association between rainfall characteristics and ENSO/IOD. Results indicated that a small proportion of meteorological rainfall observations exhibit significant trends, shifts, and short-term persistence. However, significant long-term persistence is more prevalent, particularly for indices describing moderate-intensity rainfall and wet-day frequency. Further, ENSO exhibits significant associations with both seasonal and extreme rainfall, with the strength and spatial extent of these associations varying across timescales, regions, and rainfall indicators. The warm phase of ENSO is generally associated with reduced rainfall, fewer rainy days, shorter wet spells, and longer dry spells, while the cold phase exhibits the opposite pattern. The linkage between IOD and rainfall characteristics is generally weak, inconsistent, and confined to specific regions and indices, yet still crucial at sensitive locations across Thailand. Moreover, the scattered nature of significant trends, shifts, and persistence in a few stations for seasonal and extreme rainfall indicates the existence of substantial unresolved spatial heterogeneity in Thailand.