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<p>Extreme rainfall (ER) events pose significant threats to ecosystems, public health, and socioeconomic systems. This study characterizes the spatiotemporal distribution, long-term trends, and teleconnections of ER with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity in Sinaloa, northwestern Mexico. Daily rainfall data from 21 meteorological stations of the CLImate COMputing project (CLICOM) were combined with satellite-derived estimates from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset (CHIRPS). Three ER indices were computed: the 90th percentile (P90), the number of days with rainfall exceeding 10&#xa0;mm, and the Extreme Rainfall Frequency. The performance of the satellite products was evaluated by comparing them with station records, using standard comparison techniques and statistical metrics. The results showed that the index that best represented ER was P90, with <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:{\rho\:}_{sp}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> = 0.68, <i>N</i> = 11,688, <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:{r}_{c}\:\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>= 0.018, and α &lt; 0.05. Two ER seasons were identified: the most intense from June to October, with maxima in the north of the state and the Sierra Madre Occidental; however, the annual trend is decreasing with values up to -1.4&#xa0;mm year⁻¹. Eastern Pacific ENSO events showed greater coherence and proportionality (in phase) with ER occurrence in the annual cycle. ENSO diversity is crucial, as Eastern Pacific El Niño events increase ER during the winter and spring seasons, whereas Central Pacific El Niño and La Niña tend to decrease them, evidencing the need to differentiate their impact in Sinaloa.</p>

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Estimating the variability and temporal trends of extreme rainfall in a region of northwestern Mexico and its relationship with ENSO diversity

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Andrea Manrique-Cantillo,
  • Enrique Morales-Acuña,
  • Diana Escobedo-Urias,
  • Jean R. Linero-Cueto,
  • Apolinar Santamaría-Miranda,
  • Blanca Estela Gutiérrez-Barba,
  • Gabriel Santiago Gutiérrez-Cárdenas

摘要

Extreme rainfall (ER) events pose significant threats to ecosystems, public health, and socioeconomic systems. This study characterizes the spatiotemporal distribution, long-term trends, and teleconnections of ER with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity in Sinaloa, northwestern Mexico. Daily rainfall data from 21 meteorological stations of the CLImate COMputing project (CLICOM) were combined with satellite-derived estimates from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset (CHIRPS). Three ER indices were computed: the 90th percentile (P90), the number of days with rainfall exceeding 10 mm, and the Extreme Rainfall Frequency. The performance of the satellite products was evaluated by comparing them with station records, using standard comparison techniques and statistical metrics. The results showed that the index that best represented ER was P90, with \(\:{\rho\:}_{sp}\) = 0.68, N = 11,688, \(\:{r}_{c}\:\) = 0.018, and α < 0.05. Two ER seasons were identified: the most intense from June to October, with maxima in the north of the state and the Sierra Madre Occidental; however, the annual trend is decreasing with values up to -1.4 mm year⁻¹. Eastern Pacific ENSO events showed greater coherence and proportionality (in phase) with ER occurrence in the annual cycle. ENSO diversity is crucial, as Eastern Pacific El Niño events increase ER during the winter and spring seasons, whereas Central Pacific El Niño and La Niña tend to decrease them, evidencing the need to differentiate their impact in Sinaloa.