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<p>Coral bleaching has become a significant concern due to rising sea surface temperatures, extreme weather events, and pollution, which hinder coral recovery between bleaching incidents. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral bleaching events globally from 1982 to 2023, with the specific objective of quantifying long-term patterns and evaluating the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on coral bleaching prevalence. Using the Global Coral Bleaching Database (GCBD), two key variables were analyzed —maximum and minimum percent bleaching—from 32,554 records spanning 1982–2023. The methodology integrated three geospatial analyses: annual central feature analysis to track shifts in the spatial center of bleaching, Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) to identify persistent and oscillating hotspots over time, and optimized outlier analysis to assess spatial clustering during El Niño and La Niña years. The analyses were weighted by both percentage bleaching severity and geospatial attributes, such as density and distance. The spatial clustering of coral bleaching events reveals insightful patterns that underscore the dynamic nature of these occurrences. For maximum percent bleached, three primary types of spatial clusters were identified: sporadic hot spots (22.78%), oscillating cold spots (13.51%,), and oscillating hot spots (3.09%). When examining minimum percent bleached, only two cluster types were identified: oscillating cold spots (13.51%) and sporadic hot spots (7.34%). The spatial analysis suggests a possible reversal in the clustering patterns of bleaching events depending on the phase of El Niño and La Niña, with some evidence of significant clustering (p-value of 0.05 or lower). During El Niño years, high-high clusters appear to be more common in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia. In contrast, La Niña years may show low-low clusters in these same regions, indicating a spatial and temporal variation in coral reef responses that could be associated with different oceanographic and climatic conditions. The observed patterns are consistent with previous studies linking increasing bleaching risk to ocean warming and climatic variability, although the present analysis does not directly test causal drivers such as SST anomalies, pollution, or storm exposure. The analysis of spatial patterns reveals critical insights into how coral bleaching is distributed globally and the role of ENSO in influencing these patterns. The overall findings underscore the urgent need for conservation efforts to enhance coral resilience against ongoing environmental stressors.</p>

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Spatial and temporal dynamics of coral bleaching, 1982–2023: hotspot persistence and ENSO-phase contrasts

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Shouraseni Sen Roy

摘要

Coral bleaching has become a significant concern due to rising sea surface temperatures, extreme weather events, and pollution, which hinder coral recovery between bleaching incidents. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral bleaching events globally from 1982 to 2023, with the specific objective of quantifying long-term patterns and evaluating the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on coral bleaching prevalence. Using the Global Coral Bleaching Database (GCBD), two key variables were analyzed —maximum and minimum percent bleaching—from 32,554 records spanning 1982–2023. The methodology integrated three geospatial analyses: annual central feature analysis to track shifts in the spatial center of bleaching, Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) to identify persistent and oscillating hotspots over time, and optimized outlier analysis to assess spatial clustering during El Niño and La Niña years. The analyses were weighted by both percentage bleaching severity and geospatial attributes, such as density and distance. The spatial clustering of coral bleaching events reveals insightful patterns that underscore the dynamic nature of these occurrences. For maximum percent bleached, three primary types of spatial clusters were identified: sporadic hot spots (22.78%), oscillating cold spots (13.51%,), and oscillating hot spots (3.09%). When examining minimum percent bleached, only two cluster types were identified: oscillating cold spots (13.51%) and sporadic hot spots (7.34%). The spatial analysis suggests a possible reversal in the clustering patterns of bleaching events depending on the phase of El Niño and La Niña, with some evidence of significant clustering (p-value of 0.05 or lower). During El Niño years, high-high clusters appear to be more common in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia. In contrast, La Niña years may show low-low clusters in these same regions, indicating a spatial and temporal variation in coral reef responses that could be associated with different oceanographic and climatic conditions. The observed patterns are consistent with previous studies linking increasing bleaching risk to ocean warming and climatic variability, although the present analysis does not directly test causal drivers such as SST anomalies, pollution, or storm exposure. The analysis of spatial patterns reveals critical insights into how coral bleaching is distributed globally and the role of ENSO in influencing these patterns. The overall findings underscore the urgent need for conservation efforts to enhance coral resilience against ongoing environmental stressors.