Modelling the impact of climate variability on rainfed Aus Rice (BR-26) using DSSAT in different agroecological zones of Bangladesh
摘要
Rice cultivation during the pre-monsoon season is emerging in Bangladesh due to its environmentally friendly nature and yield potential compared to the other two seasons of rice cultivation. Knowledge about the influence of weather parameters, proper transplanting dates, and spatial yield variation is a key aspect of enhancing rice yield. This study examines the performance of the pre-monsoon Aus rice variety BR-26 under various production environments, focusing on the calibration and validation of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model by incorporating agronomic management, weather, and soil data. Relationships among grain yields during the pre-monsoon season, concerning the increasing temperature and CO2 levels, were analyzed for futuristic crop management in Bangladesh. Temperature was considered to increase by 1 °C intervals step by step from 0 °C to + 4 °C, while CO2 levels were simulated from the current 380 ppm to higher levels of 421, 538, 670, and 936 ppm, correspondingly. It was found that the optimum transplanting window for Aus rice was mid-March to early May across different locations in Bangladesh. The findings indicate that without region-specific transplanting time adjustment along with improved nitrogen and water management, the Aus rice (BR-26) yields may decline sharply under warming scenarios beyond + 1 °C, as elevated CO₂ alone is insufficient to offset temperature-induced losses. Region-specific climate adaptation planning will therefore be essential to sustain pre-monsoon rice productivity in Bangladesh.