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<p>Urban regions of the Gangetic Plain are experiencing increasing exposure to climatic extremes, making them critical hotspots for assessing the impacts of regional climate variability and rapid development. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation extremes across 16 smart cities located in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. High-resolution precipitation data from Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS; 1981–2022) and temperature data from Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Temperature with Station data (CHIRTS; 1983–2016) were used. A suite of standardized indices from the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ETSCI) and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was computed, and trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, with statistical significance assessed at p-value &lt; 0.05. The results reveal a pronounced and statistically significant warming trend across most cities, characterized by a significant increase in warm extremes (TX90p and TN90p; p-value &lt; 0.05 to p-value &lt; 0.001) and a concurrent significant decline in cold extremes (TN10p; p-value &lt; 0.001). Several cities, including Patna, Biharsharif, and Lucknow, exhibit strong intensification of heat stress, along with increasing warm spell duration (WSDI), indicating a shortening and weakening of winter conditions. Extreme precipitation indices exhibit high spatial variability and are largely statistically non-significant, though notable localized changes are evident. Cities such as Agra and New Delhi show declining trends in extreme rainfall indices, including RX1day and R95p, whereas cities such as Kanpur and Jhansi demonstrate increasing trends in heavy rainfall frequency (R10mm) and total precipitation (PRCPTOT, significant in Kanpur). Cities including Patna and Bhagalpur indicate modest increases in heavy precipitation indices (R95p and PRCPTOT) and wet spell duration (CWD). Additionally, some locations show increasing consecutive dry days (CDD), suggesting enhanced rainfall intermittency. Overall, the findings indicate a transition toward intensified heat extremes and spatially heterogeneous precipitation behaviour, with emerging risks of both extreme rainfall and dry spells. These changes have significant implications for urban climate resilience, emphasizing the need for adaptive planning strategies to mitigate heat stress, manage urban flooding, and address water resource variability in rapidly growing cities of the Gangetic Plain.</p>

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Spatiotemporal evaluation of climate extremes across smart cities of the Gangetic Plain using high-resolution data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Prabhat Kumar,
  • P. Parth Sarthi

摘要

Urban regions of the Gangetic Plain are experiencing increasing exposure to climatic extremes, making them critical hotspots for assessing the impacts of regional climate variability and rapid development. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation extremes across 16 smart cities located in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. High-resolution precipitation data from Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS; 1981–2022) and temperature data from Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Temperature with Station data (CHIRTS; 1983–2016) were used. A suite of standardized indices from the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ETSCI) and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was computed, and trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, with statistical significance assessed at p-value < 0.05. The results reveal a pronounced and statistically significant warming trend across most cities, characterized by a significant increase in warm extremes (TX90p and TN90p; p-value < 0.05 to p-value < 0.001) and a concurrent significant decline in cold extremes (TN10p; p-value < 0.001). Several cities, including Patna, Biharsharif, and Lucknow, exhibit strong intensification of heat stress, along with increasing warm spell duration (WSDI), indicating a shortening and weakening of winter conditions. Extreme precipitation indices exhibit high spatial variability and are largely statistically non-significant, though notable localized changes are evident. Cities such as Agra and New Delhi show declining trends in extreme rainfall indices, including RX1day and R95p, whereas cities such as Kanpur and Jhansi demonstrate increasing trends in heavy rainfall frequency (R10mm) and total precipitation (PRCPTOT, significant in Kanpur). Cities including Patna and Bhagalpur indicate modest increases in heavy precipitation indices (R95p and PRCPTOT) and wet spell duration (CWD). Additionally, some locations show increasing consecutive dry days (CDD), suggesting enhanced rainfall intermittency. Overall, the findings indicate a transition toward intensified heat extremes and spatially heterogeneous precipitation behaviour, with emerging risks of both extreme rainfall and dry spells. These changes have significant implications for urban climate resilience, emphasizing the need for adaptive planning strategies to mitigate heat stress, manage urban flooding, and address water resource variability in rapidly growing cities of the Gangetic Plain.