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<p>Climate and land-use change are growing concerns due to their impacts on hydrological processes, especially in areas of intensive agriculture, such as the western region of Bahia. This study investigates how changes in climate and land cover affect the streamflow of the Corrente River basin. The Corrente basin is located on the Matopiba agricultural frontier, a strategic area for Brazil’s grain production. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated, after which land-use change simulations were run using the projected scenario for 2038. Climate projection data were obtained from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, which provides downscaled global models. From this, the BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM4-8, GFDL-CM4, MRI-ESM2-0, and CMCC-ESM2 products were selected for the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios for the 2015–2040 period. Historical data from the climate models were compared with observed data to evaluate their performance. The models showing the highest efficiency in estimating monthly mean precipitation and maximum/minimum temperatures based on NSE, PBIAS, R², and KGE coefficients were selected. The projections from the most efficient models were then used as input for SWAT. The results indicate statistically significant variations in streamflow indicators, driven by both land use and land cover changes and climate projections. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (BCC-CSM2-MR), the low-flow indicator Q90 is projected to decrease by approximately 95.6%, reaching 3.72&#xa0;m³/s, while total water yield may decline by up to 77.95%. Actual evapotranspiration is projected to increase by up to 15.38% under SSP2-4.5, accompanied by a 43.91% reduction in lateral subsurface flow. In contrast, land-use changes alone result in a comparatively modest 4.46% reduction in Q90. Scenarios simulated by the BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2-0 models indicate substantial variations in the basin’s streamflow and water balance, with the SSP5-8.5 scenario projecting the most severe impacts. According to the SWAT simulations, climate change scenarios through 2040 has a more significant impact on the Corrente River basin’s water resources than do changes in land use and land cover. However, the inherent limitations of the climate models and SWAT model must be considered, as their ability to reproduce historical data proved to be limited.</p>

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Increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressure on the Matopiba agricultural frontier and its impacts on water resources: a case study of the Corrente River Basin

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月11日

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  • Lorena Lima Ferraz,
  • Carlos Amilton Silva Santos,
  • Raildo Mota de Jesus

摘要

Climate and land-use change are growing concerns due to their impacts on hydrological processes, especially in areas of intensive agriculture, such as the western region of Bahia. This study investigates how changes in climate and land cover affect the streamflow of the Corrente River basin. The Corrente basin is located on the Matopiba agricultural frontier, a strategic area for Brazil’s grain production. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated, after which land-use change simulations were run using the projected scenario for 2038. Climate projection data were obtained from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, which provides downscaled global models. From this, the BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM4-8, GFDL-CM4, MRI-ESM2-0, and CMCC-ESM2 products were selected for the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios for the 2015–2040 period. Historical data from the climate models were compared with observed data to evaluate their performance. The models showing the highest efficiency in estimating monthly mean precipitation and maximum/minimum temperatures based on NSE, PBIAS, R², and KGE coefficients were selected. The projections from the most efficient models were then used as input for SWAT. The results indicate statistically significant variations in streamflow indicators, driven by both land use and land cover changes and climate projections. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (BCC-CSM2-MR), the low-flow indicator Q90 is projected to decrease by approximately 95.6%, reaching 3.72 m³/s, while total water yield may decline by up to 77.95%. Actual evapotranspiration is projected to increase by up to 15.38% under SSP2-4.5, accompanied by a 43.91% reduction in lateral subsurface flow. In contrast, land-use changes alone result in a comparatively modest 4.46% reduction in Q90. Scenarios simulated by the BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2-0 models indicate substantial variations in the basin’s streamflow and water balance, with the SSP5-8.5 scenario projecting the most severe impacts. According to the SWAT simulations, climate change scenarios through 2040 has a more significant impact on the Corrente River basin’s water resources than do changes in land use and land cover. However, the inherent limitations of the climate models and SWAT model must be considered, as their ability to reproduce historical data proved to be limited.