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<p>Amidst the paradox of high rainfall and increasing drought risk, the Meghalaya region stands at the forefront of climate-induced hydrological challenges. This study investigates the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon by analyzing historical and projected climate data spanning 86-year period (1981–2100) to explore how climatic factors contribute to these contrasting trends. Using a combination of observational climate data and advanced hydrological modeling, we examined key climatic factors, including rainfall intensity, temperature trends, and their impacts on hydrological processes. Results indicate a significant increase in rainfall intensity, and at the same time a decline in light rain events and rainy days. This shift, combined with rising temperatures, leads to elevated evapotranspiration, and reduced infiltration disrupting hydrological balance of the region. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-month scale reveals an increasing frequency of drought events, particularly under high-emission scenarios like SSP585. Projections indicate significant reductions in mean annual streamflow, with seasonal variability highlighting potential drought conditions. Hydrological modeling projects substantial reductions in streamflow for the region’s major river basins up to 9–12%. This study highlights that this paradox arises from the contrasting interaction between intensified rainfall, local topography, and rising temperatures amid ongoing climate change.</p>

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When more rain means more drought: hydroclimatic drivers of increasing drought risk in the world’s wettest region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

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  • Ashesh Rudra Paul,
  • Pankaj Kumar Roy

摘要

Amidst the paradox of high rainfall and increasing drought risk, the Meghalaya region stands at the forefront of climate-induced hydrological challenges. This study investigates the underlying mechanisms driving this phenomenon by analyzing historical and projected climate data spanning 86-year period (1981–2100) to explore how climatic factors contribute to these contrasting trends. Using a combination of observational climate data and advanced hydrological modeling, we examined key climatic factors, including rainfall intensity, temperature trends, and their impacts on hydrological processes. Results indicate a significant increase in rainfall intensity, and at the same time a decline in light rain events and rainy days. This shift, combined with rising temperatures, leads to elevated evapotranspiration, and reduced infiltration disrupting hydrological balance of the region. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-month scale reveals an increasing frequency of drought events, particularly under high-emission scenarios like SSP585. Projections indicate significant reductions in mean annual streamflow, with seasonal variability highlighting potential drought conditions. Hydrological modeling projects substantial reductions in streamflow for the region’s major river basins up to 9–12%. This study highlights that this paradox arises from the contrasting interaction between intensified rainfall, local topography, and rising temperatures amid ongoing climate change.