Scholarlink

<p>Previous assessments of water resources in administrative regions relied on the Pearson Type III (P-III) curve, a method constrained by its requirement for the data series to follow a Gamma distribution. To overcome this constraint, this study proposes a method based on the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The proposed approach has broader applicability and specifically emphasizes the continuity of inter-annual water resource dynamics. With the derived model, the hidden states of total water resources and their interannual transition patterns were analyzed across China’s 6 major geographic regions. The HMM identified 3 hidden states of total water resources (“Dry,” “Flat,” “Abundant”) and its transition patterns revealed: (1) Most regions favored shifting to “Flat”; (2) “Dry” states in North, Northeast, and Northwest China exhibited high self-persistence, while “Flat” in Central-South and Southwest tended to switch to “Dry”; (3) “Abundant” states in Northwest and Southwest showed &gt; 50% self-persistence, but Northeast’s “Abundant” often transitioned directly to “Dry.” The proposed method accounts for potential temporal dependencies in water resource variability and provides insights for regional water resource assessments.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Hidden markov models to analyze China’s total water resources states and transfer characteristics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

查看全文
  • Tao Zhang,
  • Xiaojun Wang,
  • Jianyun Zhang,
  • Zhiyong Liu,
  • Shamsuddin Shahid

摘要

Previous assessments of water resources in administrative regions relied on the Pearson Type III (P-III) curve, a method constrained by its requirement for the data series to follow a Gamma distribution. To overcome this constraint, this study proposes a method based on the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The proposed approach has broader applicability and specifically emphasizes the continuity of inter-annual water resource dynamics. With the derived model, the hidden states of total water resources and their interannual transition patterns were analyzed across China’s 6 major geographic regions. The HMM identified 3 hidden states of total water resources (“Dry,” “Flat,” “Abundant”) and its transition patterns revealed: (1) Most regions favored shifting to “Flat”; (2) “Dry” states in North, Northeast, and Northwest China exhibited high self-persistence, while “Flat” in Central-South and Southwest tended to switch to “Dry”; (3) “Abundant” states in Northwest and Southwest showed > 50% self-persistence, but Northeast’s “Abundant” often transitioned directly to “Dry.” The proposed method accounts for potential temporal dependencies in water resource variability and provides insights for regional water resource assessments.